GENVICT(002869) 海通证券·2024-09-23 13:12Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the acceleration of the vehicle-road coordination industry due to its deep industrial chain layout [1] - The company's 2024H1 revenue was RMB 228 million, up 2.52% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching RMB 16 million, a 90.19% YoY increase [5] - The gross margin improved to 36.40% in 2024H1, driven by a shift in product mix towards higher-margin RSU and intelligent toll collection robot products [5] - The company's vehicle-road coordination business is expected to grow rapidly, supported by favorable government policies and increasing demand for smart transportation solutions [5][6] Financial Performance - 2024H1 revenue breakdown: Smart Highway (71.09%, RMB 162 million), Automotive Electronics (23.67%, RMB 54 million), Smart City (3.34%, RMB 8 million) [5] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 512 million in 2023 to RMB 1,125 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 29.4% [5][8] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 49 million in 2023 to RMB 148 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 29.5% [5][8] - Gross margin is projected to rise from 35.1% in 2023 to 37.7% in 2026 [8] Industry and Policy Context - The government has issued policies to accelerate the digital transformation of transportation infrastructure, aiming to upgrade 85% of busy national highways and 70% of important national waterways by 2027 [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has opened over 32,000 km of intelligent connected vehicle test roads and issued more than 7,700 test licenses [4] - The "Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration" pilot program is being implemented in 20 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, marking a significant step in the industrialization of intelligent connected vehicles [4] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 50.85x, slightly higher than the peer average of 50.83x [7] - The report suggests a fair value range of RMB 26.17-28.35 for 2024, based on a PE multiple of 60-65x [6] Business Segments - Smart Highway: Expected to grow from RMB 393 million in 2023 to RMB 882 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 30% [8] - Automotive Electronics: Projected to increase from RMB 84 million in 2023 to RMB 178 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 30% [8] - Smart City: Anticipated to grow from RMB 25 million in 2023 to RMB 47 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 20% [8]