美年健康：第二季度环比一季度利润改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 profit showed significant improvement compared to Q1, with a 124 72% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit attributable to the parent company [4] - The company's average customer price for health check-ups in H1 2024 was 653 yuan, showing a stable upward trend [4] - The company is focusing on medical quality and service improvement, aiming to enhance customer satisfaction, repurchase rates, and average customer prices [4] - The company is expected to enter a new growth phase through both internal and external expansion [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - H1 2024 revenue was 4 205 billion yuan (-5 33% YoY), with a net loss of 216 million yuan attributable to the parent company [4] - Q2 2024 revenue was 2 404 billion yuan (+2 96% YoY), with a net profit of 71 million yuan attributable to the parent company [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11 432 billion yuan, 13 001 billion yuan, and 14 536 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 4 9%, 13 7%, and 11 8% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 602 million yuan, 848 million yuan, and 1 116 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 19 0%, 40 9%, and 31 7% respectively [4] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 0 15 yuan, 0 22 yuan, and 0 29 yuan respectively [4] Market Performance - The stock price on September 23 was 3 38 yuan, with a 52-week range of 3 22-6 92 yuan [1] - The total market capitalization is 13 23 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 13 089 billion yuan [1] - The stock's absolute performance over the past 1M, 2M, and 3M was 1 5%, -2 0%, and -14 0% respectively [2] Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2024 is 29x, with a range of 22-33x [7] - The company's 2024 PE ratio is estimated at 29 15x, with a target price range of 4 61-5 38 yuan [4] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to be 39 6% in 2024, increasing to 41 5% by 2026 [5] - ROE is forecasted to improve from 7 2% in 2024 to 10 9% in 2026 [5] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 55 5% in 2024 to 52 2% in 2026 [8] Operational Highlights - Group clients accounted for 67% of revenue, while individual clients accounted for 33% in H1 2024 [4] - The company is building a refined health management system, focusing on medical quality and key discipline construction [4]