Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 5.96 HKD, maintaining the rating from previous assessments [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's mid-term profit margin visibility is expected to improve due to favorable conditions on both the numerator and denominator sides, with macroeconomic expectations stabilizing [1]. - The company's main product, the financial cloud service, is considered a strong necessity for enterprises, leading to a stable demand forecast for the entire year [2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are anticipated, with the R&D expense ratio expected to drop below 20% by 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated as "Buy" with a 6-month outlook indicating a potential return of over 20% relative to the Hang Seng Index [11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 64.50 billion RMB in 2024, with net profit estimates adjusted to -0.22 billion RMB for the same year [3]. Market Conditions - The SaaS assets are sensitive to the denominator side, and with the onset of a rate-cutting cycle, the company's valuation is expected to benefit [1]. - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, alleviating previous concerns regarding the impact of small and medium enterprises on business performance [1]. Demand Stability - The company maintains a high renewal rate of 95% for its services, indicating strong customer retention and demand stability [2]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for the company's services is reported at 50,000 RMB, which is 25% of the average salary for A-share listed companies [2]. Cost Management - The report notes that the software industry has begun more decisive cost-cutting measures, which are expected to reflect positively in financial results by 2025 [3]. - The historical R&D investment ratio for the company is being adjusted, with expectations for a decrease from 25% in 2023 to below 20% by 2026 [3].
金蝶国际：分子分母端或共振，中期利润率回升能见度有望提升