Secote co.ltd(603283) 浙商证券·2024-09-24 10:03Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is driven by both the Apple supply chain and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with strong growth expectations in the AI innovation cycle [2] - The company's future three-year net profit compound growth rate is expected to remain above 23%, driven by increased demand for assembly/testing equipment in the Apple supply chain and the domestic substitution of HBM [2] - AI terminal innovation is expected to drive equipment demand growth, with global AI smartphone shipments projected to reach 520 million units by 2027, accounting for 40% of the global smartphone market [2] - The company has extended its industrial chain vertically, participating in the R&D of new products and components, which opens up greater growth potential [2] - HBM domestic substitution demand is strong, with Samsung increasing its HBM CAPEX by 2.5x in 2024, and the company is one of the few domestic companies capable of mass-producing HBM testing equipment [2] Current Stock Position - The current stock price is at a historical low, with a PE valuation of 11x based on 2025 profits, indicating a sufficient safety margin [3] Catalysts and Indicators - Key indicators include the confirmation of Apple's new models and the company's new order signings [3] - Catalysts include better-than-expected sales of Apple's new models and new order signings exceeding expectations [3] Research Value - The market underestimates the company's growth potential, as its core driver is customer innovation (R&D expenditure) rather than terminal sales growth [4] - From 2016 to 2023, the company's consumer electronics business revenue grew at a CAGR of 39%, while Apple's R&D expenditure grew at a CAGR of 18%, indicating that innovation is the key driver of the company's performance [4] - The company has a deep relationship with Apple, having passed Apple's supplier certification in 2011 and gradually expanding its cooperation to various automation assembly and testing equipment [6] - The company's vertical integration in the industrial chain and rapid response capabilities have built a strong moat, allowing it to compete effectively with international manufacturers [6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's 2024 performance target is a non-GAAP net profit growth of at least 15%, with an expected net profit of over 800 million yuan [6] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 5.21 billion, 6.27 billion, and 7.56 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 20.4%, and 20.5%, respectively [6] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 850 million, 1.05 billion, and 1.30 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.6%, 24.1%, and 23.7%, respectively [6] - The target market value is 18.9 billion yuan, representing a 64% upside from the current market value of 11.5 billion yuan [6] Financial Highlights - Revenue for 2023 was 4.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 51.8% [6] - Net profit for 2023 was 687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 123.7% [6] - The company's ROE for 2023 was 35.3%, with expected ROE for 2024-2026 at 29.1%, 25.5%, and 24.4%, respectively [6]