Chengtou Holding(600649) 华泰证券·2024-09-26 04:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 5.36 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its urban village renovation projects in Shanghai, with a total investment of RMB 183 billion, which represents 223% of its 2023 sales [2][4]. - The company aims to maintain its sales scale and is expected to enter a performance growth phase in the second half of the year, driven by rapid sales growth [1][4]. - The company has a significant advantage in land acquisition, particularly in Shanghai, which is expected to support its long-term sales strategy [1][3]. Summary by Sections Project Expansion - The company has acquired two urban village renovation projects in Minhang District, Shanghai, which are expected to enhance its premium land reserves and facilitate a strong linkage between primary and secondary markets [2][3]. - The projects include the revitalization of cultural heritage buildings and the development of high-end residential products, with a development cycle of 5.5 years [2]. Sales Performance - The company reported sales of approximately RMB 9.75 billion in the first eight months of 2024, marking a 19% increase year-on-year and a significant improvement in its market ranking [4]. - The anticipated launch of the second phase of the Luxiangyuan project is expected to contribute to a total sales value close to RMB 15 billion for the year, indicating a robust sales performance [4]. Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is RMB 0.22, RMB 0.49, and RMB 0.59 respectively, with a book value per share (BPS) of RMB 8.38, RMB 8.81, and RMB 9.34 for the same years [1][5]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 555.90 million in 2024, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [5][10].