证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W5：如何理解上海收储新政？ 上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作，模式联动刚需租赁和改 善置换，后续关注实际推进情况。此次浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区将作为 首批试点区，三区在收购范围、收购模式上有一定区别。我们认为，上海 作为核心城市，在市场深度下行的时点推动类收储政策，其信号意义较强。 同时，上海联动刚需（保障性租赁住房）与改善需求（置换），满足保障房 筹集任务、改善市场供需，而且收购范围锚定在低总价小面积房源，收购 后将相关购买力定向引导至总价段更高的新房/二手房市场，有望释放政 策杠杆效应，并且可能打通更高价位段房源的置换链条，以激活市场。试 点三区在收购范围、模式上有细微差别，或也有"摸着石头过河"的意味， 如模式走通，也有望在全市开展更广泛的收购工作。因此，后续应重点关 注三区实际推进的情况，真实政策效力取决于实际做了多少。 以春节周开始和结束日期为锚进行周度对齐。春节前第 2 周，样本城市新 房成交面积为 112.5 万方（同比-45.1%），样本城市二手房成交面积为 183.7 万方 ...

房地产、建材板块反复活跃，京投发展、韩建河山3连板，兔宝宝、坚朗五金、三棵树、城投控股、津 投城开、中国武夷跟涨跟涨。 ...

（来源：淘金ETF） 1. 我爱我家（000560） 是国内房产经纪龙头企业，成立于2000年，依托线下超3000家门店的网络布局，主营业务聚焦房产租 赁、二手房交易、新房代理及家居服务，是租售同权政策的核心受益标的。作为行业首批参与住房租赁 试点的企业，公司已累计服务超千万家庭，旗下"相寓"品牌在长租公寓领域具备显著规模优势，管理房 源超40万套。除租售同权外，公司还叠加了社区经济、数字化转型等热点概念，通过"线上平台+线下 门店"的模式提升运营效率。未来看点在于，随着租售同权政策深化，公司凭借成熟的租赁服务体系和 房源储备，有望进一步抢占市场份额，同时数字化工具的持续投入将推动服务体验升级，在行业周期复 苏中率先受益。 2. 华发股份（600325） 是珠海国资委旗下的老牌房企，成立于1992年，主营业务聚焦房地产开发、商业运营及物业服务，核心 布局粤港澳大湾区，是区域型房企的代表。作为租售同权板块的重要参与者，公司通过自持商业物业与 长租公寓项目，积极响应政策导向，旗下"华发优家"租赁品牌已落地多个核心城市。除租售同权外，公 司还叠加了大湾区建设、国企改革等热点概念，依托珠海本土资源优势，深度参与城市更 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600649 | 城投控股 | 5.55 | 6.94% | 144.33万 | 7.78亿 | | 600835 | 上海机电 | 28.87 | 3.51% | 20.59万 | 5.87 亿 | | 600675 | 中华企业 | 2.96 | 3.50% | C 88.30万 | 2.58亿 | | 600841 | 动力新科 | 9.70 | 3.19% | 41.18万 | 3.91亿 | | 600097 | 开创国际 | 12.26 | 2.77% | 10.89万 | 1.32亿 | | 600819 | 耀皮玻璃 | 8.84 | 2.55% | 18.05万 | 1.58亿 | | 601211 | 園泰海通 | 66'61 | 2.51% | 128.70万 | 25.56亿 | | 600621 | 华鑫股份 | 17.02 | 2.35% | 40.27万 | 6.81亿 | | 600624 | ST复华 | 5.33 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share real estate sector has seen significant gains, particularly driven by the launch of a program in Shanghai to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Real estate stocks in the A-share market experienced substantial afternoon gains, with notable performers including I Love My Home and Huafa Co., which hit the daily limit [1] - Other companies such as Rong'an Real Estate, Jingtou Development, and Caixin Development also reached their daily limit previously, while China Merchants Shekou and City Investment Holdings rose over 7% [1] - The following companies showed significant increases: Jindi Group and Tefa Service over 6%, and Zhongzhou Holdings, Jingneng Real Estate, Binjiang Group, and Shilianhang over 5% [1] Group 2: Company Data - Rong'an Real Estate: 10.27% increase, market cap of 6.495 billion [2] - Jingtou Development: 10.09% increase, market cap of 4.445 billion [2] - I Love My Home: 10.06% increase, market cap of 8.503 billion [2] - Huafa Co.: 9.95% increase, market cap of 12.2 billion [2] - Caixin Development: 9.92% increase, market cap of 2.927 billion [2] - China Merchants Shekou: 7.50% increase, market cap of 98.2 billion [2] - City Investment Holdings: 7.13% increase, market cap of 1.39 billion [2] - Jindi Group: 6.69% increase, market cap of 15.1 billion [2] - Tefa Service: 6.52% increase, market cap of 7.183 billion [2] - New Town Holdings: 6.19% increase, market cap of 40.2 billion [2] - Zhongzhou Holdings: 5.88% increase, market cap of 5.87 billion [2] - Jingneng Real Estate: 5.79% increase, market cap of 2.898 billion [2] - Binjiang Group: 5.74% increase, market cap of 37.8 billion [2] - Shilianhang: 5.54% increase, market cap of 5.699 billion [2]

排水体制改革，是上海城市基础设施领域近年少有的系统性改革，要把污水处理从原来的分散化管 理转变为集中式管理。 据透露，上海污水处理系统有六大片区，为石洞口、竹园、白龙港、杭州湾沿岸、嘉定及黄浦江上 游、崇明三岛。其中，石洞口、竹园、白龙港三大片区为市属污水处理系统，运营主体为城投集团，即 此次排水管理体制改革的重点片区。 去年，上海出台《上海市排水管理体制改革方案》，明确到今年底，黄浦区、静安区、徐汇区、长 宁区、普陀区、虹口区、杨浦区、宝山区、闵行区、浦东新区北部区域和嘉定区真新街道、江桥镇部分 区域内雨污水公共排水设施，交由上海城投集团实施市属污水处理片区（石洞口、竹园、白龙港三大片 区）厂站网一体化运维管理。 记者 戚颖璞 记者从上海市城投水务排水公司获悉，上海市排水体制改革正在持续推进。目前，上海污水处理石 洞口、竹园和白龙港三大片区，已完成1555个水位、流量和水质监测点位的建设。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [7] Core Insights - The new policy in Shanghai for acquiring second-hand housing aims to address the rental needs of new citizens, young people, and graduates, potentially stabilizing housing prices and boosting industry confidence [1][4] - The policy is expected to facilitate a balance between supply and demand in the real estate market by replacing new construction with stock acquisition, thus compressing the supply cycle for affordable rental housing [3] - The report highlights the importance of targeted housing supply strategies in key districts, focusing on small units and proximity to industrial areas to meet talent housing needs [2] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies with strong credit, good locations, and quality products, particularly those with quality reserves in Shanghai [5] - Specific companies highlighted include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, among others, which are expected to benefit from the new policy and market recovery [9][10] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the new policy is not the first of its kind in China, with previous examples in cities like Zhengzhou, but it is expected to have a more significant impact in Shanghai due to its status as a core first-tier city [4] - The anticipated market stabilization is supported by a relatively market-oriented pricing mechanism for affordable rental housing, which could lead to sustainable commercial outcomes [4] Company Performance - Companies such as Greentown Service and Longfor Group are expected to maintain strong performance metrics, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and stable cash flow management [11][12] - The report emphasizes the operational capabilities of companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are positioned to navigate market adjustments effectively [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Market Performance - The real estate development sector increased by 2.89% compared to the previous trading day, with Dayuecheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Top Gainers in Real Estate Sector - Dayuecheng (000031) closed at 3.73, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 909,000 shares and a transaction value of 329 million [1] - Sanxiang Impression (000863) closed at 6.70, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 570,600 shares and a transaction value of 374 million [1] - Deep Shenzhen A (000029) closed at 21.97, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 85,700 shares and a transaction value of 183 million [1] - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649) closed at 5.61, up 10.00% with a trading volume of 1,889,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.032 billion [1] - New Town Holdings (601155) closed at 17.85, up 9.98% with a trading volume of 464,600 shares and a transaction value of 812 million [1] Top Losers in Real Estate Sector - Yuehongyuan A (000573) closed at 4.44, down 8.45% with a trading volume of 1,597,200 shares and a transaction value of 719 million [2] - Hefei Urban Construction (002208) closed at 13.97, down 5.10% with a trading volume of 622,900 shares and a transaction value of 886 million [2] - Shunfa Hengneng (000631) closed at 4.09, down 4.66% with a trading volume of 718,800 shares and a transaction value of 302 million [2] Capital Flow in Real Estate Sector - The real estate development sector saw a net inflow of 1.225 billion in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 598 million [2] - Main funds showed significant inflows in major companies such as Vanke A (000002) with a net inflow of 475 million, accounting for 15.58% [3] - Poly Development (600048) had a net inflow of 334 million, representing 10.82% of the total [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has experienced a significant surge in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - A-shares real estate ETF rose nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's property stocks surged over 6%, with notable increases in companies like Sunac China and Hongyang Real Estate, both rising over 20% [1][5]. - Specific stock performances included China Aoyuan up 27.4%, Sunac China up 23.3%, and Hongyang Real Estate up 22.58% [5][6]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector suggests a clean clearing of chips, with low valuations attracting investor interest [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Signals - The rise in real estate stocks coincides with a notable increase in the liquor sector, indicating structural volatility in the market as these sectors are seen as lagging behind in previous downturns [1][9]. - The recent surge in commodities, including gold and copper, reflects heightened inflation expectations, which could impact sectors like AI negatively [2][9]. - The performance of 30-year treasury futures has been unexpectedly strong, suggesting a complex market narrative that does not align with traditional economic theories regarding inflation and bond prices [3][9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics monthly, suggesting a more lenient regulatory environment [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy adjustments, such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand homes and the lowering of commercial property loan down payments, may support a stabilization in the real estate market [7].