Baolong Automotive(SH:603197) Shanghai Securities·2024-09-26 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the automotive parts sector, with stable revenue growth and profitability expected from traditional businesses like TPMS and valve stems, while new businesses in intelligent and lightweight components are entering a growth phase [2][5]. - The company has accelerated the localization of air suspension components, capturing significant market share with projects from 11 clients covering over 30 vehicle models, with projected sales exceeding 23 billion [2][5]. - The sensor business is expanding rapidly, with a revenue growth rate of 51.71% in the first half of 2024, contributing 9.74% to total revenue, and is expected to continue growing as production ramps up [2][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1997, the company has developed a strong market presence in TPMS, exhaust system components, valve stems, and air suspension systems, aiming to be among the top three in global niche markets [12][18]. - The company has a clear shareholding structure and an experienced management team, with the actual controllers holding 27.37% of the shares [17][18]. Business Segments - Traditional businesses such as TPMS, valve stems, and metal pipes contribute significantly to revenue, while air suspension and sensor businesses are growing rapidly [19]. - In the first half of 2024, traditional businesses accounted for 66.36% of revenue, with emerging businesses like air suspension and sensors increasing their share [19]. Market Opportunities - The air suspension market is experiencing rapid growth, with penetration rates expected to reach 15% by 2025, driven by increasing demand and declining costs [24][26]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the trend of domestic suppliers gaining market share as the industry shifts towards localized production and procurement [28][30]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 71.23 billion, 86.86 billion, and 108.19 billion respectively, with net profits expected to grow at rates of 6.31%, 31.85%, and 25.55% [5][7].