TONGWEI CO.,LTD(600438) 海通证券·2024-09-26 04:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's strategic execution capabilities, technological and cost advantages are driving a new round of growth [3] - The company's leading position in the polysilicon and battery sectors is expected to strengthen, with significant advancements in new battery technologies [3][4] - The company's integrated strategy in the module business is opening new growth opportunities, with overseas market share steadily increasing [4] Polysilicon Sector - The polysilicon industry is in a consolidation phase, with the company leveraging its cost and customer advantages to strengthen its position [3] - The company's unit cost remains industry-leading, with comprehensive power consumption dropping below 50 kWh/kg and silicon consumption below 1.04 kg/kg-Si [3] - Polysilicon sales in H1 2024 reached 228,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.82% [3] - The company's new capacity using the 8th generation "Yongxiang Method" is expected to further reduce costs, with unit investment costs projected to drop to around 500 million RMB per 10,000 tons [29] Battery Sector - The company is accelerating the development and mass production of new battery technologies, with the first batch of GW-level copper interconnection pilot technology batteries successfully produced [3] - The company's 1GW pilot line has achieved an average power output of 735W, with an A-grade rate exceeding 97% and a breakage rate below 0.5% [3] - The company plans to launch its proprietary HJT+copper interconnection solution by the end of 2024 [3] - The company is also making progress in XBC, perovskite/silicon tandem, and other new battery technologies [3] Module Sector - The company's module shipments reached 31.11GW in 2023, ranking 5th globally [4] - In H1 2024, module sales reached 18.67GW, a year-on-year increase of 108.36% [4] - The company has obtained over 20 international market certifications and is steadily increasing its overseas market share [4] Financial Projections - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be -1.02, 0.90, and 1.73 RMB, respectively [5] - The PB ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.56, 1.45, and 1.28, respectively [4] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 117.563 billion, 150.147 billion, and 181.063 billion RMB, respectively [5] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is projected to be -4.57 billion, 4.064 billion, and 7.789 billion RMB, respectively [5] Industry Overview - The polysilicon industry is capital and technology-intensive, with a long construction cycle and high capital requirements [15] - The industry is undergoing a supply clearing phase, with prices nearing the bottom [21][22] - The company's cost advantages and strategic customer relationships are expected to maintain its market share [37] Technological Advancements - N-type batteries are becoming the mainstream trend, with TOPCon and HJT technologies showing significant efficiency improvements [39][42] - The company's TNC technology is expected to dominate the market, with a projected market share of over 70% by 2024 [47] - The company is also making strides in HJT, XBC, and perovskite/silicon tandem technologies [48][49] Market Position - The company has been the global leader in battery shipments for seven consecutive years, with 2023 shipments reaching 80.66GW [45] - The company's TNC technology has demonstrated superior performance, with a maximum output power of 743.2W and a conversion efficiency of 23.93% [46] - The company's module business has rapidly expanded, with 2023 shipments reaching 31.11GW, ranking 5th globally [54] Overseas Expansion - The company has obtained over 20 international market certifications and is steadily increasing its overseas market share [4] - The company's overseas market shipments are expected to increase in 2024, with a target of 50GW module shipments, aiming for a higher proportion of overseas sales [59]