KUAISHOU(01024) 东方证券·2024-09-26 06:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company shared its development strategy during the 2024 Investor Day, focusing on the synergy between content and commercial ecosystems to drive efficiency and sustainable operations [1] - The report highlights the importance of user-driven commercialization and content collaboration, leveraging AI to reshape the ecosystem [1] - The company aims to balance content distribution mechanisms with user feedback and commercial value to maximize overall returns [1] Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit forecast for the company is projected to be CNY 170.05 billion, CNY 236.02 billion, and CNY 301.92 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from CNY 113.47 billion in 2023 to CNY 126.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [4][6] - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 54.0% in 2024 [4][6] Business Segments - In the e-commerce segment, the company reported an 18% year-on-year increase in live broadcast gross profit margin (GPM) for Q2 2024, with GMV growth close to 50% [1] - The number of product categories increased by 30% in Q2 2024, with a 25% rise in the number of new merchants [1] - The local life segment saw a sequential GMV growth of 22% and 30% in Q1 and Q2 of 2024 respectively, with a 278% year-on-year increase in monthly active trading users [1] Valuation - The report applies a PE valuation method, assigning a 14x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of HKD 60.89 per share [5][6] - The estimated market value of the company is CNY 2,381 billion, equivalent to HKD 2,640 billion [5][6]