东诚药业：原料药业务短期承压，核药管线布局丰富

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - Dongcheng Pharmaceutical's revenue for the first half of 2024 was RMB 1.421 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.41%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 112 million, a year-on-year decrease of 39.35% [3] - The nuclear medicine business remained stable, with sales revenue of RMB 499 million in H1 2024, a slight decrease of 0.58% year-on-year [3] - The company has a rich pipeline in nuclear medicine, with 30 operational nuclear medicine production centers and 8 under construction, focusing on oncology, neurodegenerative diseases, and cardiovascular diseases [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 221 million, RMB 306 million, and RMB 419 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 46.4x, 33.5x, and 24.5x [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be RMB 2.903 billion, a decrease of 11.4% year-on-year, with a recovery to RMB 3.242 billion and RMB 3.740 billion in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [3][4] - Net profit for 2024E is expected to be RMB 221 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with further growth to RMB 306 million and RMB 419 million in 2025E and 2026E [3][4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 45.0% from 2024E to 2026E [4] - ROE is projected to increase from 4.8% in 2024E to 8.4% in 2026E [4] Business Segments - The nuclear medicine segment generated RMB 499 million in revenue in H1 2024, with key products 18F-FDG and Yunke Injection contributing RMB 195 million and RMB 123 million, respectively [3] - The API segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue declining by 31.03% year-on-year to RMB 657 million in H1 2024, primarily due to a 39.02% drop in heparin API sales [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 46.4x in 2024E to 24.5x in 2026E [3][4] - P/B ratio is projected to decline from 2.22x in 2024E to 2.05x in 2026E [4] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decrease from 17.79x in 2024E to 11.49x in 2026E [4] Market Performance - The stock's absolute return over the past 1M, 2M, and 3M was 6.15%, 6.24%, and 1.64%, respectively, underperforming the CSI 300 index by -0.40%, 1.95%, and -0.89% over the same periods [2]