2026 年 02 月 09 日 策略点评 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 股债商全线上涨 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2026 年 2 月 9 日周一，A 股市场大幅上涨，沪指再度站上 4100 点；国债 期货市场均实现小幅上涨；商品指数上涨，贵金属和有色金属明显回暖。 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 策略点评 一、市场行情分析 图 1：市场反弹，小幅放量 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 板块全线上涨，科技与光伏领涨。今日中信一级行业板块均实现上涨，其中偏红利 防御属性的板块涨幅较小，石油石化、银行、食品饮料、家电、电力与公用事业板 块分别上涨 0.29%、0.35%、0.37%、0.39%、0.48%。科技板块大爆发，通信、 传媒、电子、计算机板块分别上涨 5.07%、3.47%、2.95%、2.84%。传 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济 2026年2月8日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第五期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 过去两周的全球市场主要受地缘局势与国际市场去杠杆的影响，国内市场也受到映射冲击。 伊朗局势突发引起中东地缘升温，油价上行； 1月FOMC影响不大，美联储新任主席人选沃什引发冲击，美元震荡偏弱，贵金属、有色等杠杆集中 市场迎来去杠杆式回调； 国内在国际市场映射与国内基本面的交织影响下，汇率平稳，权益转弱。 整体来看，过去两周全球市场表现偏弱，美元走弱带来非美货币涨多跌少。 股市：弱势行情下，A股H股偏弱，美股出现分化，科技板块整体转弱，道指领涨； 债市：FOMC在3-4月降息概率不高；中债国债利率非典型"牛平"，信用利差大多走扩； 商品：大宗涨少跌多，有色、贵金属领跌；上海新房价格强势； 汇市：美元指数震荡偏弱，非美货币涨多跌少，尼日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is in a state of rotation as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, and it is currently accumulating strength for the Spring rally. It is recommended to allocate technology and consumption sectors evenly and make low-cost layouts [7][14]. - In the bond market, the capital situation remains relatively loose. Falling interest rates and risk aversion continue to drive up the bond market. In the medium to long term, moderately loose monetary policies are expected to strengthen the demand for bond allocation [10][14]. - In the commodity market, short-term fluctuations in precious metals are caused by margin adjustments of domestic and foreign exchanges, but the long-term outlook remains positive [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - The A-share market is in a state of shock adjustment with shrinking trading volume. Overseas market adjustments may have affected market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.73%. The total trading volume was 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.4% from the previous day [2]. - Cyclical sectors led the gains, while consumer and technology sectors adjusted. Petrochemical and basic chemical industries led the rise, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit. The consumer sector declined, possibly due to profit-taking after a rapid rise. The technology sector continued to be weak, affected by the decline of US technology stocks [5]. - The market style is rotating, and the Spring rally is still expected. The market is currently in a state of rotation, and it is difficult to have a dominant sector in the short term. Sectors such as photovoltaics, commercial aerospace, and non-ferrous metals may have new catalysts in the future, and consumer and real estate-related sectors may also present investment opportunities. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly and make low-cost layouts [7]. Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market rose across the board, with long-term contracts leading the gains. The 30-year main contract (TL2603) rose 0.42%, the 10-year main contract (T2603) rose 0.08%, the 5-year contract (TF2603) rose 0.03%, and the 2-year contract (TS2603) rose 0.02% [10]. - The central bank net withdrew 146 billion yuan, but the 14-day reverse repurchase continued to support cross - festival liquidity. Falling Shibor rates and risk aversion are driving the bond market up, and moderately loose monetary policies are expected to strengthen the demand for bond allocation in the medium to long term [10]. Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, and precious metals fluctuated significantly again. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed down 0.86%. Shanghai silver led the decline with a 14.92% drop, while LPG and alumina rose slightly [10]. - The increase in overseas margins led to significant fluctuations in precious metals. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group raised the initial margins for gold and silver futures. Precious metals may continue to fluctuate in the short term but are expected to rise in the long term [10]. - The price of alumina rose, but there is still long - term overcapacity pressure. The rise in alumina futures is due to a local spot shortage and pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectations, but it is constrained by long - term overcapacity [10]. Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Popular Varieties | Variety | Core Logic | Follow - up Concerns | | --- | --- | --- | | AI Application | Acceleration of product applications represented by Alibaba Qianwen and Google GEMINI | 1. Transformation of application scenarios; 2. Product technology upgrade and breakthrough [12] | | Commercial Aerospace | Establishment of commercial aerospace companies and strong support for development | 1. Domestic reusable rocket launch situation; 2. Technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [12] | | Nuclear Fusion | Acceleration of industrialization in the mid - upstream | 1. Project progress; 2. Industry bidding situation [12] | | Quantum Technology | Technological breakthroughs and strategic emerging industries | 1. Domestic policy support; 2. Progress of key domestic and foreign projects [12] | | Brain - Computer Interface | 14th Five - Year Plan policy support and overseas technological progress | 1. Domestic technological progress; 2. Progress of foreign company projects [12] | | Robotics | Continuous product upgrading and accelerating industrialization | 1. Tesla's order release rhythm; 2. Technological progress of domestic enterprises [12] | | Big Consumption | Policy support for consumption upgrade | 1. Economic recovery; 2. Further stimulus policies [12] | | Brokerage | A - share trading volume remains above 2 trillion, and deposit transfer | 1. A - share market trading volume; 2. Possible changes in trading systems [12] | | Precious Metals | Continuous central bank purchases and expected Fed rate cuts | 1. Further Fed rate cut expectations; 2. Geopolitical risks [12] | | Non - Ferrous Metals | Weak US dollar index and supply constraints | 1. Changes in the US dollar index; 2. Global regional supply changes [12] | Recent Core Ideas - In the equity market, the current market is in a rotation state, and it is recommended to allocate technology and consumption sectors evenly and make low - cost layouts [14]. - In the bond market, the capital situation is loose, and the bond market is expected to continue to rise. In the medium to long term, the demand for bond allocation will be strengthened [14]. - In the commodity market, short - term fluctuations in precious metals are expected, but the long - term outlook is positive [14].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and a decline, with major indices closing lower, reflecting a weak sentiment among investors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64% to 4075.92 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.44% to 13952.71 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.55% to 3260.28 points. The total market turnover was 2.19 trillion, down 12.3% from the previous trading day, marking four consecutive days of declining volume [2][5][6]. Sector Performance - The financial and consumer sectors showed resilience, with the banking sector leading gains, up 1.66%. Notable performers included Xiamen Bank, which hit a ceiling price, and Chongqing Bank, which rose by 5.73%. Other consumer-related sectors such as food and beverage, textiles, and retail also saw increases, attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and related consumption activities [5][6]. - In contrast, the technology sector faced significant declines, with the photovoltaic sector dropping 6.67% and the semiconductor sector also under pressure. The overall sentiment in these sectors was negatively impacted by profit-taking and external market influences, particularly from the U.S. tech stocks [5][6]. Bond Market - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in government bond futures, with the 30-year contract (TL2603) increasing by 0.38% to 112.17. The central bank's net injection of 645 billion yuan indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity, which is expected to support bond market sentiment in the medium to long term [7][10]. Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 2.14%, with significant declines in precious metals and basic metals. The South China commodity index closed at 2753.3 points, with silver and lithium carbonate experiencing drops exceeding 10%. Conversely, the energy sector showed strength, with slight increases in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that despite the current market adjustments, there are still opportunities in sectors driven by policy catalysts and consumption trends. Key areas of focus include photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and consumer sectors, which are expected to benefit from upcoming policy support and seasonal consumption increases [6][10]. - The report also highlights the potential for long-term investments in precious metals, driven by central bank policies and geopolitical risks, despite short-term volatility [7][10]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in these areas for potential investment opportunities [8][10].

Market Analysis - The A-share market continues to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing at 4102.20 points, up 0.85% [2][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a modest increase of 0.21%, closing at 14156.27 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.40% to 3311.51 points, indicating some adjustment pressure in the technology growth sector [2][7] - The overall market trading volume remained high at 2.5 trillion yuan, with 3252 stocks rising and 2126 falling, suggesting concentrated profit effects in cyclical and policy-themed sectors [2][7] Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a surge, with a 7.61% increase in the sector index, driven by expectations of reduced production quotas from the Indonesian government, leading to supply contraction [5][13] - The aviation sector saw a 4.95% rise, supported by the commencement of the Spring Festival travel season, with passenger transport expected to reach 95 million during this period [5][7] - The photovoltaic equipment sector remained strong, with the space photovoltaic index rising by 5.10%, driven by expectations of accelerated projects from Elon Musk [5][7] - The media sector faced a decline of 3.28%, reflecting concerns over content industry substitution risks [5][7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market experienced slight adjustments, with the 30-year contract falling by 0.23% to close at 111.70 yuan [10] - The People's Bank of China continued to implement a net liquidity withdrawal, conducting a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [10][17] - The overall bond market sentiment remains supported by long-term demand for ultra-long bonds, with expectations of further monetary easing [10][17] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 2.00%, with significant rebounds in precious metals and industrial products, including silver rising by 11.22% and gold by 7.29% [10][17] - The market sentiment has quickly recovered from previous panic, with expectations of a stabilization phase following rapid price fluctuations [10][17] - The focus on precious metals remains strong, with long-term upward trends expected due to global monetary credit system restructuring and geopolitical risks [10][17] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and precious metals, driven by policy support and industry trends [7][14] - The report highlights the potential for AI applications, quantum technology, and consumer upgrades as areas of growth, with ongoing monitoring of technological advancements and market conditions [14][17]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.29% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.19%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [2][5] - The technology growth sector led the gains, particularly in the photovoltaic equipment sector, which saw significant increases, including a 7.48% rise in the space photovoltaic index [5][7] - The overall market saw 4,851 stocks rise against 529 that fell, with a trading volume of 2.57 trillion yuan, suggesting cautious optimism among investors [2][5] Sector Performance - The photovoltaic sector surged, driven by news of a merger between SpaceX and xAI, which is expected to boost demand for solar energy due to the high energy consumption of AI technologies [5][7] - Other sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and quantum technology are also highlighted as areas of growth, with specific attention to product application and technological advancements [12][14] Bond Market - The bond market showed mixed results, with short-term contracts gaining while long-term contracts slightly declined. The 5-year bond contract rose by 0.06% to 105.91 yuan [11] - The central bank's net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan indicates a stable liquidity environment, supporting demand for bonds [11][15] Commodity Market - The commodity index increased by 0.93%, with notable gains in palladium (+8.62%), polysilicon (+6.61%), and lithium carbonate (+4.63%), while some metals like silver and tin experienced declines [14] - The copper market is expected to see increased demand due to strategic reserves and the anticipated growth in electric vehicle and AI data center sectors, with copper prices rising by 2.60% [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and precious metals for long-term investment, as the market transitions from a risk-off phase to a more stable growth outlook [7][15]

Consumer Sector - Major companies are accelerating their C-end AI initiatives, with significant marketing investments exceeding 4.5 billion CNY from Tencent, ByteDance, and Baidu for the Spring Festival[4] - The top three AI applications have achieved over 100 million monthly active users (MAU): Doubao (approximately 320 million), Deepseek (approximately 150 million), and Qianwen (approximately 100 million) as of January 2026[7] High-end Manufacturing - Elon Musk announced plans to build 200 GW of solar capacity in the U.S. within three years, focusing on space-based solar energy, but the short-term impact on the photovoltaic industry remains limited[14] - Major photovoltaic companies are projected to incur significant losses in 2025, with Longi Green Energy, Tongwei Co., and TCL Zhonghuan each expected to lose over 6 billion CNY[17] Hard Technology - The electronic supply chain is experiencing a divergence in performance, with upstream companies like Western Digital and Seagate reporting better-than-expected earnings due to AI-driven demand, while downstream sectors face cost pressures[19] - Global smartphone SoC shipments are expected to decline by 7% in 2026, with low-end models under the most pressure[22] Health Sector - The CXO and research upstream sectors are showing signs of recovery, with notable profit growth expected for leading companies: WuXi AppTec's net profit is projected to increase by 102.65% to 19.15 billion CNY in 2025[26] - Global biopharmaceutical financing data is expected to show a 2.7% increase in 2025, with China's growth rate at 6.4%[28]

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, marking a substantial drop below the 4100-point level [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.69%, reaching its largest single-day decline since January, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.46% [2] - Over 4600 stocks in the market declined, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down, indicating a sharp decrease in market risk appetite [2] Sector Performance - Resource stocks faced heavy losses, with declines of 7.63% in non-ferrous metals, 5.65% in steel, and 5.43% in coal and oil sectors, reflecting concerns over industrial demand as the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 [5] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage, and banking showed resilience, with increases of 1.15% and 0.13% respectively, attracting risk-averse capital [5] - The high-voltage power sector surged by 3.84%, driven by policy catalysts from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [5] Commodity Market - The commodity index saw a significant drop of 4.37%, with most commodities declining sharply, while only a few chemical products showed gains [7] - Precious metals like gold and silver experienced steep declines, with silver dropping by 17.00% and gold by 15.73%, reflecting a market shift away from high-volatility assets [7][8] - The market exhibited extreme differentiation, with only a few products like caustic soda and PVC showing upward movement amidst widespread declines [7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed mixed results, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18% while shorter-term contracts experienced slight declines [10] - The central bank's net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan indicates a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of continued monetary easing supporting bond market sentiment [10] - The overall market liquidity remains stable ahead of the upcoming Spring Festival, with a focus on the central bank's liquidity tools [10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift from a previous bullish trend to a more volatile market environment, recommending a focus on sectors like photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and precious metals for medium to long-term investments [12] - The commodity market is expected to undergo a period of consolidation after rapid declines, with potential for upward movement in precious metals in the medium to long term [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy developments to identify investment opportunities [12]

International Market - The U.S. labor market remains in a weak balance, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 62.4%, reflecting limited changes in employment dynamics [6][11] - Core inflation has cooled, with December CPI at 2.7% year-on-year and core CPI at 2.6%, both aligning with market expectations [6][11] - The FOMC meeting in January did not provide strong guidance, maintaining the policy rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, with political factors influencing dissenting votes [11][13] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and trade relations with Europe, are causing market volatility, impacting oil prices and overall economic sentiment [14][15] Domestic Market - China's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 5%, with December exports showing strength while investment and retail sales are weaker [31][33] - Financial data indicates a narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates, with M2 growth at 8.5% and M1 at 3.8%, suggesting a decline in market liquidity [33][35] - The A-share market in January exhibited a rebalancing trend, with traditional value sectors like materials and energy performing well, while technology sectors showed relative strength [35][36] - Looking ahead to February 2026, the A-share market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with a focus on sectors like storage chips, AI applications, and robotics [42]

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - On January 30, 2026, the A-share market showed a differentiated and volume - shrinking adjustment; the Treasury bond futures market had mixed performance; the commodity index had a significant adjustment, with precious metals dropping sharply and lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit down [2]. - The current market is in a structural market driven by "policy catalysis + industrial trends". It is recommended to focus on the main lines of photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and non - ferrous metals in the medium and long term [8]. Summary by Directory Market行情 Analysis - **Stock Market**: The market showed a differentiated adjustment with a shrinking volume. The ChiNext Index rose against the trend. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.27%, and the STAR 50 Index rose slightly by 0.12%. The total market turnover was 2.86 trillion yuan, a 12.2% decrease from the previous day. Resource stocks tumbled, while agriculture and technology sectors strengthened. The market rotation accelerated, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival capital layout [3][6][8]. - **Bond Market**: The Treasury bond futures market had mixed performance, with medium - and short - term contracts rising and long - term contracts falling. The central bank had a net injection of 352.5 billion yuan, and short - term interest rates declined. In a moderately loose monetary policy environment, the central bank indicated that "there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", which is expected to support the bond market sentiment in the future [10][11]. - **Commodity Market**: The commodity index had a significant adjustment. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 2858 points, down 2.48%. Precious metals and new energy materials were hit hard, while some chemicals and agricultural products rose. Lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit down, and the price of precious metals fluctuated significantly due to the possible nomination of a new Fed chair [10][11][12]. Trading Hotspot Tracking - **Recent Popular Varieties Summary**: Popular varieties include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain - computer interfaces, robots, large - scale consumption, securities firms, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. Each variety has its own core logic and subsequent focus points [15]. - **Recent Core Ideas Summary**: The overall market turnover remains at a historical high, and it is recommended to focus on the main lines of photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and precious metals. The bond market is expected to be supported by a moderately loose monetary policy. The commodity market may oscillate and consolidate after high - level fluctuations, and precious metals still have upward potential in the medium and long term [18].