优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 基础化工 沪深300 供给端不确定性加深，溴素涨价有望 超预期 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：据百川盈孚，2025 年 3 月 25 日，溴素市场均价为 28000 元/吨，较上一交 易日大幅上涨 3000 元/吨，涨幅 12.0%，较 2024 年同期上涨约 9000 元/吨。 点评： 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 25 日 图 1：春节后溴素价格加速攀升 图 2：溴素下游以阻燃剂应用为主 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 供给侧：我国溴素对外依存度高，红海局势升温或波及进口。我国溴素资源十分短 缺，主要分布在山东省莱州湾的地下卤水中。近年来，山东卤水水位和品位下降 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 供给侧：我国溴素对外依存度高，红海局势升温或波及进口。我国溴素资源十分短 缺，主要分布在山东省莱州湾的地下卤水中。近年来，山东卤水水位和品位下降很 快，有效产能不断收缩，因此我国溴素高度依赖进口，进口量由 2021 年的 6.3 万 吨提升至 2024 年的 7.7 万吨，依存度由 47.3%提升至 56.8%。海外角度看，死海 是世界上溴元素含量最丰富的地方之一，湖水中溴浓度高达 2000-12000ppm，远 高于海水的 65ppm。依托死海溴资源，以色列化工集团、约旦溴业公司、以及美 国雅保三者合计溴素产量占到全球总产量的 72%以上，供给高度集中。据新华社 报道，近期红海局势再升温，涉及红海、阿拉伯海、曼德海峡和亚丁湾的航线或受 影响。地缘政治风险下，以色列出口船只绕行好望角成为缓解原航线受阻的重要方 式。但航程延长增加了供应链压力，同时提高了货运和 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：需求预期回暖，价 格震荡反弹》，2025.3.9 2.《煤炭周报：协会倡议书出台， 静待需求发力》，2025.3.2 3.《煤炭周报：政策&基本面共振， 看好煤焦钢估值修复》，2025.2.23 4.《煤炭周报："金三银四"旺季 将至，关注煤焦钢弹性》， 2025.2.16 5.《煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税 支撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情》，2025.2.9 煤炭周报：预期底部夯实，静待 需求复苏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 03 月 23 日 投资建议：2024 年 9 月政治局会议开启经济支持新篇章，结合近两年供给持续弱 化，煤炭板块基本面底部再度确认，市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with total operating income for 2024 reaching 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. Net profit for the same period was 22.37 billion yuan, up 95.21% year-on-year [6][7] - The increase in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the company's performance improvement. The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,705 yuan per ton by the end of 2024, a 39% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is expanding its green aluminum production capacity, with a high operating rate of 99.32% in Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production [6] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for the year, reflecting a payout ratio of approximately 63%, up from around 50% in previous years [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 9,463.89 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 147.60 billion HKD [6] - Revenue forecast for 2025: 149.53 billion yuan [7] - Net profit forecast for 2025: 22.03 billion yuan [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025: 2.33 yuan [7] - Gross margin forecast for 2025: 27.19% [7] - Return on equity (ROE) forecast for 2025: 16.97% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with total operating income for 2024 reaching 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. The pre-tax profit was 32.80 billion yuan, up 106.4%, and net profit was 22.37 billion yuan, reflecting a 95.21% increase [6] - The rise in alumina prices and stable electrolytic aluminum prices are the main drivers for the company's performance improvement. The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,705 yuan per ton by the end of 2024, a 39% increase year-on-year [6] - The company is actively expanding its green aluminum production capacity, with a high utilization rate of 99.32% in Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum production [6] - The company has increased its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for the year, resulting in a payout ratio of approximately 63%, up from around 50% in previous years [6] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability and social contributions as the proportion of green electricity aluminum increases, with projected net profits of 22 billion, 24.3 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 9,463.89 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 147,604.72 million HKD [6] - Total assets: 247,467.75 million HKD [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 2.36 yuan, with a gross margin of 27% [7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 14.33% [7] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 20.75% for 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, suggesting that the expected overall return is within -10% to +10% of the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate during the March meeting, with a 99% probability of pausing rate cuts, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [6][11]. - The report highlights that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with potential adjustments in unemployment rates due to increasing layoffs, which could impact economic growth and inflation expectations [4][6]. - The focus of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be on the interest rate outlook and economic projections, particularly the dot plot indicating potential rate cuts later in the year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report notes that while the U.S. economy remains resilient, there are signs of softening in certain data points, which could lead to a downturn in economic performance and affect stock market earnings [6][7]. - The potential for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 is highlighted, but the exact timing and frequency remain uncertain [6][7]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that market volatility will remain high due to unpredictable political actions and macroeconomic uncertainties, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to stabilize market expectations [7][8]. - It is suggested that small-cap growth sectors may have greater upward potential compared to larger indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [5]. Interest Rate Projections - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate, with expectations for future rate cuts becoming more pronounced as the year progresses [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise in the near term, reflecting broader market adjustments [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high probability of a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% expectation for March [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is crucial for understanding its outlook on interest rate cuts and economic projections, particularly in light of recent employment and consumption data showing signs of weakness [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the Fed may adjust its unemployment rate forecasts upward due to visible impacts from federal layoffs, which could significantly influence market sentiment [5][6]. - The unpredictable actions of former President Trump are expected to create volatility in the market, complicating the Fed's ability to maintain stability and independence [5][6]. - The report suggests that while market volatility may remain high, concerns over recession trading are likely to diminish, with potential upward movement in small-cap growth sectors compared to larger indices [5][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the economy is not expected to face a recession imminently, despite a slowdown in strength and no significant inflationary pressures [5][6]. - The Fed's updated dot plot will be closely watched, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, although the actual number may vary [5][6]. Market Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to have a significant impact on the market, particularly regarding the dot plot and economic data outlook [5][6]. - The report predicts a potential rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, while short-term rates may have limited upward flexibility [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that investors may consider gradually building positions in the market, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, despite expected volatility in major indices [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, with a strong investment rating due to robust industrial production and manufacturing investment growth [4][9]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which is counteracting the decline in real estate investment. Manufacturing investment grew by 9.0% in January-February, while real estate investment declined by 9.8% [4][8]. - The report highlights a structural shift in the economy, with five key macroeconomic logic changes indicating a potential turning point in pessimistic narratives [9][10]. - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy is emphasized as a key driver for economic resilience, with ongoing industrial production and manufacturing investment effectively offsetting negative impacts from real estate and consumption [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic Performance in January-February - The national economy started smoothly in January-February, with major economic indicators showing stability and improvement. Industrial production remains strong, investment shows resilience, and consumption is marginally improving [8][9]. - Industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while social retail sales grew by 4.0% [8][9]. 2. Industrial Production - Industrial added value for January-February grew by 5.9%, with significant contributions from the equipment manufacturing sector, which saw a 12% increase in added value [15][19]. - The report notes that the manufacturing sector continues to be a major driver of economic growth, supported by policy initiatives aimed at industrial upgrading [15][17]. 3. Fixed Asset Investment - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.1% in January-February, with manufacturing investment at 9.0% and infrastructure investment at 5.6% [23][24]. - The report indicates that manufacturing investment remains strong, supported by policies promoting equipment updates and industrial upgrades [24][27]. 4. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.8% in January-February, but the rate of decline is narrowing, suggesting potential stabilization in the sector [34][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in new and second-hand housing transactions, indicating a possible turnaround in the real estate market [35][39]. 5. Consumer Spending - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% in January-February, with notable declines in certain categories due to pre-holiday shopping and the impact of trade-in policies [43][44]. - The report suggests that while there is a marginal recovery in consumer spending, underlying trends indicate a downward adjustment in the consumption growth rate [43][46]. 6. Employment Situation - The employment situation remains generally stable, with a seasonal increase in the unemployment rate observed [49].

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal supply has increased, with domestic raw coal production in February reaching 765 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, and coal imports totaling 76.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5][9] - Demand for coal is under pressure, with total electricity generation in January-February declining by 1.3% year-on-year, and thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - The report anticipates a potential improvement in demand due to macroeconomic expectations and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][11] Summary by Sections Supply Side - In January-February, domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, totaling 765 million tons, while coal imports rose by 2.1% to 76.12 million tons [5][9] - The total coal supply for January-February was 840 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.91% [5][9] Demand Side - Total electricity generation decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, with thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - Clean energy sources showed growth, with hydropower increasing by 4.5%, solar power by 27.4%, and wind power by 10.4% [12][14] Inventory and Prices - National coal inventory increased by 24.62% year-on-year, reaching 81 million tons, while key power plants' coal inventory grew by 12.80% [19][21] - Coal prices have seen significant declines, with Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price down by 20.83% year-on-year [24][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas: 1. Dual-focus elasticity stocks such as Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [5] 2. High-quality dividend stocks like Shaanxi Coal and China Coal Energy [5] 3. Long-term growth stocks including Guanghui Energy and New Hope Energy [5]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal supply has increased, with domestic raw coal production in February reaching 765 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, and coal imports totaling 76.12 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year [5][9] - Demand for coal, particularly for electricity generation, has decreased, with total electricity generation in January-February falling by 1.3% year-on-year, and thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - The report anticipates a potential improvement in demand due to macroeconomic expectations, supported by government policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and fiscal stimulus measures [5][11] Supply Side Summary - In the first two months, domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, while coal imports rose by 2.1% [9][10] - Total coal supply for January-February was 840 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.91% [5][9] Demand Side Summary - National electricity generation decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, with thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - Clean energy sources such as hydropower, solar, and wind have shown growth, with solar power generation increasing by 27.4% year-on-year [12][15] Inventory and Price Summary - National coal inventory increased by 24.62% year-on-year, with key power plants showing a 12.80% rise in coal inventory [19][21] - Coal prices have seen significant declines, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal down by 20.83% year-on-year [24][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas: 1. Dual-focus on coking coal elasticity, recommending companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [5] 2. High-quality dividend stocks, recommending Shaanxi Coal and China Coal Energy [5] 3. Long-term growth potential, recommending companies such as Guanghui Energy and New Hope Liuhe [5]