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文娱用品行业点评:万代南梦宫业绩超预期的启示:IP产业星辰大海
德邦证券· 2025-02-08 12:23
文娱用品 2025 年 02 月 08 日 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 文娱用品 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号:S0120523070004 邮箱:yidy@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 万代南梦宫业绩超预期的启示: IP 产业星辰大海 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 优于大市(维持) 市场表现 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 37% 49% 61% 73% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 文娱用品 沪深300 易丁依,上海财经大学金融硕士,21 年 6 月加入德邦证券,负责医美、化妆品领域研究,把握颜值经济行业趋势、分析用户画像、研 究终端产品、高频跟踪渠道动销,深挖公司基本面型选手,挖掘胶原蛋白等前沿细分市场。 分析师声明 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件:万代南梦宫发布业绩预告,相比彭博一致预期超预期:2025 财年 Q3,公司 实现营收 3442.7 亿日元/+27.49%,高于彭博一致预期 3121.3 亿日元,归母净利 润 479.7 亿日元/+482.8%,归母净利率 13 ...
DeepSeek快速渗透,商业模式优势加速基础设施爆发
德邦证券· 2025-02-08 09:35
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 2025 年 02 月 08 日 通信 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号:S0120524070003 邮箱:liht@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 66% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 通信 沪深300 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek,中国算力模式胜出 的加速器》,2025.2.5 2.《AI 基础设施助推"玩具场景", C 端应用或将放量》,2025.1.25 3.《台积电入场,光引擎进入芯片时 代?》,2025.1.22 4.《"AI+"推动 capex 增加,算力基 础设施和端侧应用受益》,2025.1.18 5.《市场波动,新型数据基础设施加 力》,2025.1.11 DeepSeek 快速渗透,商业模式优势 加速基础设施爆发 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 DeepSeek 或动摇高端算力卡地位,国产算力链迎来机会。DeepSe ...
中科星图:吹响AI+低空龙头号角
德邦证券· 2025-02-07 12:23
所属行业:计算机/IT 服务Ⅱ 当前价格(元):56.94 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中科星图(688568.SH) 2025 年 02 月 07 日 买入(维持) 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号:S0120524090004 邮箱:lipj@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 中科星图 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 24.75 | -2.99 | 3.26 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 22.79 | 0.29 | 7.77 | | 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《中科星图:低空云 V1.0 发布,迈 向 AI 算力+低空 SaaS 新征程》, 2025.1.19 2.《中 ...
有机硅行业深度报告:扩产周期步入尾声,新领域引领新需求
德邦证券· 2025-02-07 08:23
王华炳 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 基础化工 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 资格编号:S0120524100001 邮箱:wanghb3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱:wangys5@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 基础化工 沪深300 扩产周期步入尾声,新领域引领 新需求 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 有机硅:应用广泛的硅基新材料。有机硅指含有硅碳键(Si-C),且至少有一个有 机基团直接与硅原子相连的一大门类化合物,是工业硅下游中应用最为广泛的化学 品之一。有机硅下游产品中硅橡胶消费量占比最大(可达 60%以上),硅油次之(占 比近 30%),其余产品包括硅树脂、功能性硅烷等。从终端应用领域来看,有机硅 因其独特的结构,兼备无机材料与有机材料的性能优势,在建筑装饰、纺织制造、 医疗护理、汽车交通、工业助剂等传统领域,以及光伏、新能源汽车等新兴领域均 有着广泛应用。 基于供需平衡表角度,有机硅格 ...
计算机:蒸馏模型加速AI平权
德邦证券· 2025-02-07 05:23
计算机 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 优于大市(维持) 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号:S0120524090004 邮箱:lipj@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -13% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 67% 81% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 计算机 沪深300 证券分析师 陈涵泊 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek 系列开源模型有望加 速 AI 端 侧 + 应 用 产 业 趋 势 》, 2025.2.3 2.《AI Agent:从 API 到 GUI 交互, Operator 重塑流程化》,2025.1.25 3.《中科星图:低空云 V1.0 发布, 迈向 AI 算力+低空 SaaS 新征程》, 2025.1.19 4.《美国首个全球 AI 禁令发布,关注 国产推理算力产业链》,2025.1.18 5.《财政发力,计算机板块基座夯 实》,2025.1.12 计算机 2025 年 02 月 07 日 ...
宏观ABC系列之六:负债端视角看我国利率体系
德邦证券· 2025-02-06 07:50
证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 [Table_Main] 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号:S0120524070001 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱:chengy@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 负债端视角看我国利率体系 ——宏观 ABC 系列之六 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 核心观点:在广谱利率下行的过程中,资管机构需要关注资产端收益率下行带来的 资产配置调整,更需要关注负债端成本变化带来的危与机,为应对低利率环境,资 管机构需要更积极开展负债端管理,以更大的努力吸引低成本负债,稳定客户群 体,确保负债端稳健,以实现长期持续发展。 一、中国的利率体系 二、从金融机构负债端认识利率体系 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 02 月 06 日 我国的利率体系主要包括存贷款利率体系和金融市场利率体系两个链条。存贷款 利率体系以银行为中介,银行撮合资金供需间接匹配;金融市场利率则在直接交易 中形成,供需双方自行匹配。在两个链条中间,银行 FTP 定价机制在贷款利率与 金融市场利率之间建立起比价关系。 央行利率走廊:超额准备金利率为 ...
医药行业周报:24Q4基金分析,创新药、并购重组等强逻辑个股获增持
德邦证券· 2025-02-05 05:23
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2025 年 02 月 05 日 医药生物 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号:S0120524060001 邮箱:zhouxm@tebon.com.cn 2.《医药行业周报: 中医发展看名 医,医保合规利龙头》,2025.1.12 3.《医药行业周报: 和黄医药剥离 中药资产,出海有望迎来新局面》, 2025.1.6 4.《昆药集团:集采续约平稳落 地,圣火并表未来可期》,2025.1.3 5.《医药行业周报:GLP-1 授权再 次 火 热 , 哪 些 管 线 值 得 关 注 》, 2024.12.29 医药行业周报:24Q4 基金分析,创 新药、并购重组等强逻辑个股获增持 陈进 资格编号:S0120521110001 邮箱:chenjing3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《医药行业周报: JPM 大会中国 公司梳理,开启创新 3.0 时代》, 20 ...
DeepSeek系列开源模型有望加速AI端侧+应用产业趋势
德邦证券· 2025-02-04 02:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 计算机 2025 年 02 月 03 日 计算机 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号:S0120524040004 邮箱:chenhb3@tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号:S0120524090004 邮箱:lipj@tebon.com.cn 王思 邮箱:wangsi@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -13% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 67% 81% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 计算机 沪深300 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 相关研究 1.《AI Agent:从 API 到 GUI 交互, Operator 重塑流程化》,2025.1.25 2.《中科星图:低空云 V1.0 发布, 迈向 AI 算力+低空 SaaS 新征程》, 2025.1.19 3.《美国首个全球 AI 禁令发布,关注 国产推理算力产业链》,2025.1.18 4.《财政发力,计算机板块基座夯 实》,2025.1.12 5.《中科星图:低空 AI 算力龙头新起 点》,2025.1.7 研究助理 DeepSeek 系列开源模型有 ...
商贸零售行业深度:万亿冰雪产业研究系列之掘金商社-政策引领、赛事驱动,旅游及本土零售有望受益
德邦证券· 2025-01-28 05:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail trade industry [2] Core Insights - The ice and snow industry is entering a rapid development phase driven by policies and events, with significant growth potential expected in the coming years [7][8] - The ice and snow economy is anticipated to become a crucial growth point for domestic demand in China, particularly benefiting the tourism sector by addressing the seasonal downturn in winter tourism [8][137] Summary by Sections 1. Ice and Snow Industry Development - The ice and snow industry has evolved from a niche market to a mainstream lifestyle choice, significantly boosted by the successful hosting of the Winter Olympics and subsequent policy support [15][18] - The industry has seen substantial growth, with the market size expanding from CNY 270 billion in 2015 to CNY 890 billion in 2023, and projected to exceed CNY 1 trillion by 2025 [30][31] 2. Retail Sector Key Companies - **Dalian Shengya**: Focuses on aquarium operations and has seen significant revenue growth from its main attractions, benefiting from increased tourist flow in Northeast China [112][122] - **Dashi Group**: A leading retail enterprise in Northeast China, with a diverse business model including department stores and supermarkets, showing stable revenue growth [66][67] - **Zhongxing Commercial**: A key player in the Liaoning region, focusing on department store operations and innovative projects like an immersive dinosaur museum [80][84] 3. Tourism Sector Key Companies - **Changbai Mountain**: Positioned to benefit from increased tourist traffic due to improved transportation and unique ice and snow resources, with a focus on comprehensive tourism services [88][100] - **Xiyu Tourism**: The only state-owned listed tourism company in Xinjiang, leveraging rich ice and snow resources and exploring new low-altitude tourism opportunities [130][135] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Changbai Mountain, Dalian Shengya, Xiyu Tourism, Dashi Group, and Zhongxing Commercial, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ice and snow economy [8][138]
桐昆股份:静待桐花映日开,方得昆玉照朝晖
德邦证券· 2025-01-28 02:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply-demand inflection point has been reached, with inventory at a bottom level, indicating potential for profit elasticity in the upcoming peak seasons [4][6] - The long-term supply-demand landscape is expected to improve, with a significant slowdown in the growth rate of supply capacity, leading to increased industry concentration [6][51] - Tongkun maintains its leading position in the polyester filament market, with plans for extensive growth in refining operations [5][90] Summary by Sections 1. Steady Expansion in Core Business - Tongkun has evolved from a local chemical fiber factory established in 1981 to a leading global player in the chemical fiber industry, achieving significant growth in production capacity and revenue [14][15] - The company has expanded its polyester filament capacity from 4 million tons in 2015 to 13.5 million tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 16.4% [6][27] 2. Inventory at Bottom Level, Positive Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook - As of January 17, 2024, the inventory levels for POY, DTY, and FDY are at 5.8, 17.3, and 12.6 days respectively, indicating a significant reduction and positioning at historical low levels [6][38] - The supply growth rate for polyester filament is projected to decline from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026), enhancing the industry's long-term profitability [6][51] - Demand for polyester filament is expected to benefit from both domestic consumption and strong export performance, with a projected supply-demand gap of 230,000 tons in 2024 [6][89] 3. Leading Market Share in Polyester Filament, Broad Growth in Refining Layout - Tongkun holds the largest market share in polyester filament production in China, with a focus on upstream refining to secure core raw material supply [90][92] - The company has invested in Zhejiang Petrochemical, holding a 20% stake, which has contributed significantly to its cash flow and investment returns [90][92] - The Indonesian refining project is expected to enhance Tongkun's overall economic benefits and market competitiveness, with projected annual revenues of $7.402 billion upon completion [92][93] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Tongkun to be 1.215 billion, 1.805 billion, and 2.421 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 52.5%, 48.5%, and 34.2% [107] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.51, 0.75, and 1.01 yuan [107] - The report indicates that Tongkun is undervalued compared to its peers, with a lower PE ratio forecasted for the coming years [107][109]