Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4]. Core Views - The cement demand in the South China region is currently under pressure due to the real estate investment environment, but the construction momentum from the Greater Bay Area is expected to provide mid-term support [2][4]. - The supply in the South China region is gradually stabilizing, leading to a market rebalancing process [4][18]. - The company, as a regional leader, possesses comprehensive advantages in scale and distribution, and its recent investments in aggregates are beginning to yield results, creating a new growth curve [2][4]. Summary by Sections South China Region: Closed and Highly Concentrated Market - The South China region has a high concentration of cement production, with Guangdong's fixed asset investment growth historically outpacing the national average, although it has faced pressure from 2022 to 2024 [10][11]. - The Greater Bay Area's construction plans are expected to accelerate regional infrastructure development, which will support material demand [10][13]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Short-term demand is under pressure, but mid-term construction in the Greater Bay Area is expected to provide new momentum [4][10]. - The supply side is seeing a reduction in new capacity, leading to a rebalancing of the market, with the South China region experiencing less severe supply-demand imbalances compared to other markets [4][18]. Competitive Landscape - The market is characterized by a semi-closed structure with high concentration, where the top three companies control a significant share of the market [4][25]. - The company is one of the two central enterprises in the cement industry, benefiting from its early entry and strategic positioning in the South China market [33]. Company Analysis - The company reported a sales volume of 69.3 million tons in 2023, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, reflecting a strategy focused on production control and price stability [5][40]. - The company's gross profit per ton of cement was 35 yuan, significantly lower than the previous cycle, indicating a challenging profit environment [5][40]. - The company has been actively expanding its aggregate business, which is now entering a harvest phase, contributing positively to its revenue [5][43].
华润建材科技：华南水泥翘楚，坐拥反转弹性