Lier Chemical (002258) 长城证券·2024-09-27 00:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to a significant decline in the price of its core product, glyphosate, which has dropped by 16.92% from 65,000 yuan/ton to 54,000 yuan/ton, and the price of refined glyphosate has decreased by 20.95% from 105,000 yuan/ton to 83,000 yuan/ton [2][5]. - Despite the current challenges, there is optimism regarding the company's strategic positioning in refined glyphosate and the potential for recovery in profitability as market conditions improve [5]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 10,136 million yuan, which is projected to decline to 6,413 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fall from 1,813 million yuan in 2022 to 252 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 58.2% [1][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 24.2% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2024 [1][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop from 2.26 yuan in 2022 to 0.32 yuan in 2024 [1][8]. Industry Context - The agricultural protection industry is experiencing intensified competition, leading to a temporary decline in product prices. However, there is potential for growth in demand as global food needs increase [5]. - The report suggests that the inventory digestion phase in the agricultural protection industry is nearing completion, and low-end production capacity is expected to be gradually eliminated due to fierce market competition [5].