TSMC-台积电：全球晶圆代工龙头，受益AI产业趋势

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TSMC (TSM O) with an "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - TSMC is the global leader in semiconductor foundry services and is well positioned to benefit from the AI industry trend [1] - The company s advanced manufacturing capabilities and strong technological expertise are irreplaceable in the industry [9] - TSMC s success is driven by its continuous investment in technological innovation and strategic growth including expansion plans in Japan [9] Financial Performance - In 2Q24 TSMC reported revenue of $20 82 billion up 40 1% YoY and 13 6% QoQ with net profit and diluted EPS both growing 36 3% [2] - Gross margin was 53 2% operating margin was 42 5% and net profit margin was 36 8% in 2Q24 [2] - Management expects 3Q24 revenue to be between$ 22 4 billion and $23 2 billion with gross margin between 53 5% and 55 5% and operating margin between 42 5% and 44 5% [2] Technology and Market Position - 3nm process accounted for 15% of wafer revenue in 2Q24 while 5nm and 7nm accounted for 35% and 17% respectively Advanced technologies (7nm and below) contributed 67% of total wafer revenue [2] - TSMC is a key supplier for AI related chips providing front end foundry services and CoWoS packaging for companies like NVIDIA Broadcom and AMD [3] - The company expects AI related revenue to reach 15 20% of total revenue in the next three years [3] Industry Overview - The global foundry market is dominated by TSMC Samsung UMC GlobalFoundries and SMIC with TSMC holding a 56 1% market share in 3Q22 [12] - The foundry industry is driven by demand for advanced process nodes particularly in high performance computing smartphones IoT automotive and consumer electronics [11] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts TSMC s net profit for 2024 2025 and 2026 to be NT$ 1 109 19 billion NT $1 423 30 billion and NT$ 1 597 06 billion respectively representing YoY growth of 32 3% 28 3% and 12 21% [4] - TSMC s P E ratios for 2024 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 26 2x 20 4x and 18 2x respectively which are below the industry average of 29 28x and 22 61x for US semiconductor equipment and manufacturing companies [4] - Key drivers for growth include increasing contributions from the 3nm process AI related foundry revenue and a steady recovery in consumer electronics [4]