Tesla(TSLA) 华安证券·2024-09-27 05:32Investment Rating - The report gives Tesla an "Overweight" rating [2] Core Views - Short-term focus: New model sales and FSD progress, especially the launch of low-cost models in 2025 and FSD expansion into China and Europe [2][3] - Medium-term focus: Energy business, with energy storage deployment expected to double or triple in 2024 [3] - Long-term focus: Optimus humanoid robot, expected to enter the market in 2026 [3] Company Overview - Tesla was founded in 2003, went public in 2010, and is the first independent pure electric vehicle manufacturer listed in the US [2] - The company aims to promote global sustainable energy transformation through large-scale production of renewable energy and electric vehicles, as well as AI and robotics development [2] - Tesla's revenue structure includes automotive (84%-88%), energy generation and storage, and services & other businesses [2] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 10.88 billion (-26.5% YoY) [2] - 24H1 revenue: 3.35 billion (-44.9% YoY) [2] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 116.23 billion, 6.57 billion, 14.06 billion, with YoY changes of -56.2%, +51.1%, and +41.6% respectively [3] Automotive Business - Tesla's automotive business accounted for 85.2% of total revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 19.45% [20] - Key models include Roadster, Model S/X/3/Y, Cybertruck, and Semi, with total deliveries of 1.81 million units in 2023 (+37.65% YoY) [2] - Low-cost new models are expected to launch in 2025, utilizing both next-gen and current platform technologies [2] - FSD V12 was released in January 2024, with a 5x parameter increase in V12.5 and plans for V13 in October 2024 [2] Energy Business - Tesla's energy products include Powerwall, Megapack, Solar Roof, and Solar Panel [3] - 24Q2 energy deployment reached 9.4 GWh (+158% YoY), with 2024 deployment expected to grow 200%-300% YoY [3] - Tesla holds a 15% global market share in battery energy storage, ranking first globally [3] Optimus Humanoid Robot - Optimus has undergone rapid iterations since its concept release in August 2021, with Gen 3 expected by the end of 2024 [3] - Optimus shares AI technology with Tesla's autonomous driving system, including neural network algorithms and FSD hardware [3] - Limited production is expected to begin in early 2025, with mass production and external customer availability starting in 2026 [3] Technological Innovations - Tesla employs integrated die-casting and CTC (Cell to Chassis) technologies, reducing vehicle weight by 10% and battery cost by 7% per kWh [48][49] - The 4680 battery, introduced in 2020, offers 5x the energy and 6x the power of previous cells, with a 16% increase in range and 14% cost reduction [49] - Tesla's engineering crossover theory leverages expertise from SpaceX to improve manufacturing efficiency and material innovation [52][53]