CSSC Holdings(600150) 浙商证券·2024-09-27 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Shipbuilding (600150) is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The merger plan between China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has been announced, indicating a positive outlook for the leading state-owned enterprise in shipbuilding [2] - The restructuring aims to enhance focus on national strategic priorities and improve the quality of operations within the shipbuilding industry [2] - The company is expected to benefit from an improved competitive landscape, scale effects, and the integration of assets within the group [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Merger and Acquisition Details - The share exchange price for China Shipbuilding is set at 37.84 CNY per share, while for China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, it is 5.05 CNY per share [2] - The exchange ratio is 1:0.1335, meaning one share of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation can be exchanged for 0.1335 shares of China Shipbuilding [2] - The dissenting shareholders' buyout price is set at 30.27 CNY per share, which is 80% of the average trading price prior to the merger announcement [2] Industry Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward trend, with the company securing 109 new orders in H1 2024, totaling 684 billion CNY, a 38% increase in tonnage year-on-year [2] - The company has a backlog of 322 vessels, amounting to 199.6 billion CNY, with a focus on green and mid-to-high-end vessels [2] - The new ship price index is at the historical 99th percentile, indicating potential for record-high prices due to supply constraints and inflationary pressures [2] Financial Projections - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is 54.4 billion CNY, 89.8 billion CNY, and 114.4 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 84%, 65%, and 27% respectively [2] - The projected P/E ratios for the same period are 31, 19, and 15 times [2] - Revenue is expected to grow from 74.84 billion CNY in 2024 to 108.84 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 15.19% and 10.47% [4]