HACL(600598) 浙商证券·2024-09-27 10:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a significant agricultural production base in China, with a focus on grain production and a commitment to shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio above 70% over the past five years [2][19]. - The land transfer market presents substantial growth potential, with traditional methods still dominating, while modern approaches are gradually gaining acceptance [3][22]. - The company leverages its rich land resources and advanced agricultural technology to enhance its core competitiveness, ensuring efficient management of its vast arable land [4][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Strengthening Grain Production Base - The company has transformed from barren land to a crucial agricultural production base, currently managing 48.74 million acres of arable land [11]. - Revenue has increased from 3.51 billion yuan in 2018 to 5.04 billion yuan in 2023, with net profit rising from 970 million yuan to 1.06 billion yuan in the same period [2][15]. 2. Land Transfer Market Potential - The land transfer market has shown continuous growth, with traditional methods like leasing and contracting still dominating [3][22]. - Average land rental prices for major grains have increased significantly, with national prices rising from 36.7 yuan per mu in 2019 to 59.5 yuan per mu in 2022, an increase of 62% [25]. 3. Enhancing Core Competitiveness - The company benefits from its location in one of the world's major black soil regions, providing a competitive edge in producing high-quality agricultural products [29]. - A comprehensive agricultural technology service system supports efficient management and production processes, enhancing overall productivity [30]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 53.43 billion yuan, 56.35 billion yuan, and 59.86 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 5.93%, 5.46%, and 6.23% [5][32]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable profit growth trajectory, with net profits forecasted at 11.34 billion yuan, 12.12 billion yuan, and 12.75 billion yuan for the same period [5][32].