行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 09 日 美伊冲突升级，原油价格飙升之下，农产 品价格预期有望反转 ⚫ 风险提示：美伊冲突升级，原油价格大幅波动，极端天气发生。 看好 - 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 点 评 农林牧渔 ⚫ 美伊冲突升级，原油价格大幅走强。2026 年 2 月 28 日美国与以色列联合对伊朗发起直接军 事打击，3 月 1 日伊朗宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡（承担全球约 1/3 海运原油和 1/5 液化天然气 运输），商业航运处于近乎停滞状态。截至 3 月 6 日，布伦特原油价格达 92.7 美元/桶，相 较封锁前（2 月 27 日）上涨 28%，为 1991 年以来最大单周涨幅；WTI 原油价格达 9 ...

业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2026 年 03 月 08 日 养殖深陷亏损，生猪产能去化加速；美伊冲突推升原 油价格，有望带动农产品价格上行 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2026.3.2-2026.3.8） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上升 2.1%，沪深 300 下跌 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：亚盛集团（39.0%）、中粮 科技（8.4%）、敦煌种业（8.2%）、农发种业（8.1%）、神农科技（7.4%），跌 ...

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 生猪：低点渐显，涨价将至 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20260302-20260308） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，淡季底部价格确认后，悲观预期有望逐步扭转。我 们看好 26 年猪价表现，成本优势领先的企业有望持续实现业绩提升，相关标的：牧原股 份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2）后 周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，猪价回暖后养殖产业链利润有望逐步向下游传 导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物(300119，未评 级)等。（3）种植链，地缘因素扰动背景下，大宗商品涨价已传导至农业。从品种基本 面来看，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关 标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶(601118，买 入)、隆平高科(000998，买入)、中粮糖业(600737，买入)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行 业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提 ...

农业行业 行业研究|行业周报 生猪：低点渐显，涨价将至 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20260302-20260308） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，淡季底部价格确认后，悲观预期有望逐步扭转。我 们看好 26 年猪价表现，成本优势领先的企业有望持续实现业绩提升，相关标的：牧原股 份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)等。（2）后 周期板块，行业结构性成长趋势持续，猪价回暖后养殖产业链利润有望逐步向下游传 导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，买入)、瑞普生物(300119，未评 级)等。（3）种植链，地缘因素扰动背景下，大宗商品涨价已传导至农业。从品种基本 面来看，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好，大种植投资机会凸显，相关 标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评级)、海南橡胶(601118，买 入)、隆平高科(000998，买入)、中粮糖业(600737，买入)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食行 业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pig farming sector, indicating a positive outlook for pig prices in 2026, with cost-advantaged companies expected to achieve performance improvements [3][42]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are driving expectations for price increases in bulk agricultural products, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices and favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries [2][36]. - The pig price is expected to recover as pessimistic expectations are likely to be reversed following the confirmation of bottom prices during the off-season [3][9]. - The report highlights structural growth trends in the post-cycle sector, with profits in the breeding industry chain expected to gradually transmit downstream after pig prices rebound [3][42]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs as of February 27 was 10.87 yuan/kg, down 6.45% week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets was 25.42 yuan/kg, down 0.31% week-on-week [12][51]. - The report notes that the average slaughter weight of pigs is at a historical low of 88.29 kg, indicating limited downside price potential in the future [12][51]. Poultry - The price of white feather broilers was 7.47 yuan/kg, down 0.13% week-on-week, while chick prices increased by 19.58% to 2.87 yuan/chick [15][51]. - The report indicates that the price of yellow feather broilers is steadily recovering, reflecting a positive trend in the poultry market [24]. Feed Sector - Prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat have risen, with corn priced at 2382.16 yuan/ton (up 0.42%), wheat at 2534.78 yuan/ton (up 0.16%), and soybean meal at 3177.14 yuan/ton (up 0.30%) as of February 27 [26][51]. - The report attributes the rise in corn prices to recovering sales in Northeast China and strong demand for replenishment [26]. Bulk Agricultural Products - Natural rubber prices have increased to 17155 yuan/ton, up 4.29% week-on-week, driven by supply shortages and geopolitical tensions [36][51]. - The report notes that the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 663,200 tons, indicating a high current inventory level but limited future increases due to low upstream inventory [36]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across different sectors, including pig farming (e.g., Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff), post-cycle sectors (e.g., Haida Group), planting chains (e.g., Suqian Agricultural Development), and the pet food sector (e.g., Guibao Pet) [3][42].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting price trends in livestock, with pig prices declining post-Chinese New Year while chicken prices are expected to rise due to limited supply and potential demand increases [4]. - It expresses optimism regarding the planting sector, anticipating an improvement in planting sentiment driven by rising grain prices in 2025 [5]. - The pet industry is influenced by exchange rate fluctuations affecting short-term export performance, but domestic market growth is expected to continue [6]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Post-Chinese New Year, pig prices have decreased, with daily average prices hovering around the low of 9,920 yuan/ton for the futures contract, indicating a surplus in supply and weak demand [4]. - Yellow chicken prices have increased post-holiday, contrasting with the downward trend observed after the previous two Chinese New Years, suggesting proactive inventory management in the industry [4]. Planting - The report notes that low grain prices in 2025 have negatively impacted some companies' performance, but a recovery in grain prices is expected to boost the planting sector [5]. - Companies with high-density planting varieties are projected to perform well, as evidenced by 康农种业's revenue and net profit growth of 7% and 16% respectively in 2025 [5]. Pet Industry - The report indicates that while the pet company 路斯股份 saw an 11% increase in revenue, net profit declined by 21% due to the appreciation of the RMB affecting gross margins [6]. - The domestic pet market is growing rapidly, and companies with overseas production capacity and increasing orders are expected to perform well [6]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is facing intense competition, but companies that continue to innovate and differentiate their products are likely to perform well despite potential profit pressures in the first half of 2026 [7]. - 科前生物 reported a 1% increase in revenue and a 9% increase in net profit, maintaining a strong market position in the vaccine sector [7]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include 牧原股份 and 温氏股份, while 科前生物 and 海大集团 are suggested for the post-cycle investment [7]. - In the agricultural product chain, stocks like 晨光生物 and 诺普信 are highlighted, along with pet industry stocks such as 乖宝宠物 and 中宠股份 [7].

（来源：饲料行业信息网） 来源：饲料行业信息网 "网上备耕太好了，不但能了解市场需求，查询最新的农业政策和农业信息资讯，还能学到好的农业技 术，今年增收是大有希望!"正在网上查看最新水稻种植技术的北大荒农业股份八五四分公司种植户曾昌 富兴奋地说。 种植户查询农业信息资讯 曾昌富在八五四分公司种植水稻370亩，每年在种植品种选择上他都遵循"优质米"至上的原则，秋天收 获后，对大米进行加工，并申请注册了"民富稻香"大米品牌，通过网络订单的形式销往全国各地。通过 网络营销渠道，足不出户就可将产品销售一空。 "如今，种植户的售粮观念也在悄然改变，大家都想让一年的辛苦换回好效益。以前受销售渠道制约， 只能卖原粮，价格还得受收购方限制。现在不一样了，网络为我们搭建了'走出去'的平台，网上销售优 质大米，不仅利润高，还会有一些订单回头客，实现未产先销，提前备足了春耕资金。"曾昌富高兴地 介绍着网络销售的经验。 在八五四分公司，种植户们除了利用网络平台扩宽粮食销售渠道外，网络上的农业科技信息、网上订 单、网络培训已成为春耕备耕的"农家三宝"，让种植户吃上致富"定心丸"。 为提前做好春耕备耕工作，这个分公司在去冬今春分别采取集 ...

Core Insights - Smart agriculture is a significant advanced stage in the development of agricultural informationization and modernization, utilizing cutting-edge technologies like satellite positioning systems and intelligent devices to enhance productivity and resource efficiency [1][5] - The Chinese smart agriculture market is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 38.47 billion yuan in 2017 to 120 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.28% [1][8] - Smart agriculture is a crucial support for rural revitalization and an inevitable trend in agricultural modernization, with future applications expected to be broader and more mature as technology continues to evolve [1][8] Smart Agriculture Industry Overview - Smart agriculture integrates modern information technologies such as the Internet, IoT, big data, and AI to achieve comprehensive information perception, quantitative decision-making, intelligent control, and personalized services in agricultural production [2][5] - Key components of smart agriculture include smart planting, smart livestock, smart aquaculture, intelligent farming machinery, and smart parks [2] Smart Agriculture Classification - Smart agriculture can be categorized into various segments, including smart planting, smart livestock, smart aquaculture, and intelligent agricultural machinery [3] Benefits of Smart Agriculture - Smart agriculture improves ecological environments by ensuring that agricultural practices do not harm soil and water quality, while also enhancing production efficiency through real-time monitoring and data analysis [4][5] - It transforms the mindset of agricultural producers and consumers, enabling remote learning and access to agricultural knowledge and market information, thus changing traditional reliance on experience [5] Industry Development History - The development of smart agriculture in China can be divided into five stages, from traditional practices before 2000 to the current focus on ecological sustainability and resource optimization [6] Industry Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to promote smart agriculture, recognizing it as a key component of digital rural construction and rural revitalization strategies [6] - The "National Smart Agriculture Action Plan (2024-2028)" aims to enhance public service capabilities and explore intelligent solutions for major crops by 2026 [6] Industry Value Chain - The smart agriculture value chain consists of upstream raw materials and equipment, midstream agricultural production processes, and downstream agricultural product processing and distribution [6][7] Current Market Size and Structure - The smart agriculture market is primarily driven by digital platform services and smart planting, accounting for 36% and 31% of the market, respectively [8] - The agricultural product circulation market in China is projected to reach 16.87 trillion yuan in 2024, with a 3% year-on-year growth [7] Industry Trends - The future of smart agriculture will focus on precision management, automation, and environmental sustainability, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance productivity and reduce resource waste [11][12][14] - Automation will significantly improve efficiency across the agricultural production chain, from planting to harvesting, enabling continuous production and higher land productivity [12][13]

Group 1 - The agricultural planting sector experienced a significant rally on February 27, with notable stocks such as Yasheng Group (600108) hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Denghai Seeds (002041), Kangnong Seeds, Nongfa Seeds (600313), and Beidahuang (600598), also saw increases in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The core growth driver of the "pet economy" is the consumption of seasonal holiday products, with the search term "New Year pet gift box" on Tmall showing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [1][2] - Sales of pet clothing for the New Year increased by 330%, while sales of pet New Year dinners grew by 290% according to Tmall data [1][2] - The pet product category has formed a comprehensive matrix covering "food + clothing + decoration + services," extending from cats and dogs to exotic pets [2] Group 2 - There has been a 46% month-on-month increase in demand for pet boarding services as reported by 58 Daojia [2] - The pilot program for pet transportation on high-speed trains has expanded to cover 110 stations and 170 trains, while the "pet in cabin" service for airlines now includes 31 airports and 110 flight routes [2] - Major pet exhibitions in South China and North China are scheduled for March, with leading domestic brands expected to launch new products at these events [2] Group 3 - After the Spring Festival, it is anticipated that pig prices will enter a seasonal decline due to decreased demand and increased supply [3] - The price is expected to drop into a low phase, leading to potential losses in the breeding sector as slaughterhouses resume operations after the holiday [3] Group 4 - Recommended stocks in the pig breeding sector include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) [4] - Other recommended stocks in the agricultural product supply chain include Morning Light Bio (300138.SZ) and Noposion (002215.SZ) [4] - In the pet sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891.SZ) [4]