SAC(600268) 东吴证券·2024-09-28 23:30Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a well-established secondary equipment supplier with over 80 years of comprehensive development, evolving from its origins in 1940 to become a recognized provider of power automation solutions in China. The business has expanded from traditional power grid and plant automation to various fields including rail transit, information technology, information security, smart primary equipment, and power electronics. The expected CAGR for revenue from 2023 to 2026 is 7% [2]. - The company is poised to benefit from the acceleration of grid investments, with a projected investment exceeding 600 billion in 2024. The market share in the main grid is expected to increase from 9% in 2023 to 11% in 2024 YTD, driven by the demand for clean energy integration and high-voltage line support. The company is also a controlling entity of Huadian Group, which enhances its position in the power plant secondary equipment sector [2]. - The company is actively expanding its business in rail transit automation and information security, with significant growth expected in these areas due to increased investment in railway infrastructure. Additionally, the company is exploring opportunities in power electronics and primary equipment, which are anticipated to contribute to new revenue streams [2]. - The company’s revenue and profit are expected to grow steadily, with projected net profits of 273 million, 313 million, and 352 million from 2024 to 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 12% respectively. The valuation corresponds to P/E ratios of 23x, 21x, and 18x for the respective years [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Established Secondary Equipment Supplier - The company has a long history and has undergone multiple transformations, covering all aspects of the new power system. It has become a leading provider of power automation solutions in China [19]. - The company benefits from the backing of Huadian Group, which provides a stable shareholding structure and experienced management [19]. - Revenue has shown steady growth, with a CAGR of 11% from 2019 to 2023, and net profit has increased significantly, with a CAGR of 42% during the same period [25]. 2. New Power System Development - The "dual carbon" strategy is driving significant growth in grid investments, with a projected increase of over 8% in 2024. The average annual investment in the grid is expected to remain above 500 billion during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [39]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing energy transition, with its established presence in both grid and power plant secondary equipment sectors [39]. 3. Multi-Business Collaboration - The company is a key player in rail transit automation, with expected rapid growth due to increased railway investment. The information security business is also anticipated to grow steadily, driven by internal demand from Huadian Group [2]. - The company is actively expanding into power electronics and primary equipment, with products like SVG and energy storage systems expected to grow alongside the renewable energy market [2]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to see net profits of 273 million, 313 million, and 352 million from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23x, 21x, and 18x, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [2].