Himile Science And Technology(002595) 华安证券·2024-09-28 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the global tire mold industry, with three main business segments showing diversified growth [1] - The company has established a strong competitive advantage through long-term strategic partnerships and is focusing on expanding its market presence in high-end CNC machine tools [2] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant employee stock ownership plans to incentivize core personnel [21][22] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1995 and listed in 2011, primarily engages in the production and sales of radial tire molds, large component machinery products, and CNC equipment [1][10] - The company has expanded its global market presence since 2014, establishing subsidiaries in the US, Thailand, and Europe [10] Tire Mold Segment - The global tire mold market is expected to grow from 1.74 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.1% [29] - The company holds approximately 52% of the global tire mold market share, benefiting from the increasing demand for tires driven by the automotive industry and technological advancements [29][30] - In 2023, the tire mold business generated revenue of 3.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.76% and a gross margin of 43.06% [44][45] Large Component Products - The large component products primarily serve the gas turbine and wind power industries, with a stable competitive landscape [3][49] - The revenue from large component products was 2.77 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 23.41% [55] - The gas turbine market is projected to grow to $28.3 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 4.2% [47] CNC Machine Tools - The CNC machine tool market in China is expected to reach approximately 409 billion yuan in 2023, with significant growth potential in high-end segments [60] - The company has seen rapid growth in its CNC machine tool business, achieving revenue of 3.08 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 111.76% [73] - The company plans to launch new products in 2024, including five-axis machining centers, to further expand its market coverage [71][72] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 82.8 billion yuan in 2024, 94.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 108.6 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 19.79 billion yuan, 22.83 billion yuan, and 26.34 billion yuan [3][78] - The estimated PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.5, 15.2, and 13.2, respectively [3][81] - The company is positioned favorably within its industry, with a clear three-tier layout across tire molds, large components, and CNC machine tools, allowing for sustained market expansion [3][81]