SHUANGHUAN COMPANY(002472) 国泰君安·2024-09-28 23:37Investment Rating - Maintains an Overweight rating with a target price of 33.04 CNY [3][5] - The target price is based on a 27x PE multiple for 2024, reflecting the company's leading industry position and accelerated overseas expansion [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 earnings forecast is in line with expectations, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to grow by 22.7%-26.1% YoY to 723-743 million CNY [3] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to increase by 26.4%-30.0% YoY to 695-715 million CNY [3] - Growth is driven by new energy and intelligent actuator businesses, with Q3 2024 net profit expected to rise by 13.2%-22.3% YoY [3] - The company is expanding its Vietnam-based smart actuator production capacity with an additional investment of 30 million CNY, further diversifying its product lines [3] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, particularly in Europe, with the establishment of a Hungary production base, enhancing its market position through technological upgrades [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 6,838 million CNY in 2022 to 14,900 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.6% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 582 million CNY in 2022 to 1,643 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 29.8% [4] - EPS is projected to rise from 0.69 CNY in 2022 to 1.94 CNY in 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 7.9% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2026, reflecting enhanced profitability [4] Market and Valuation - The company's market cap stands at 21,180 million CNY, with a 52-week price range of 18.80-29.59 CNY [6] - The current P/E ratio is 25.94x, expected to decline to 12.89x by 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [4][6] - The P/B ratio is 2.66x, projected to decrease to 1.85x by 2026, suggesting improving asset efficiency [4][7] Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is focusing on precision gear manufacturing and expanding its product lines through Huanqu Technology, covering both power transmission and intelligent actuator components [3] - The Vietnam investment aims to strengthen the company's presence in the smart actuator market, leveraging its expertise in gear technology [3] - The Hungary production base is part of the company's strategy to consolidate its position in the European market, supported by advancements in electric drive technology [3] Financial Ratios and Performance - Gross margin is expected to improve from 21.1% in 2022 to 23.0% in 2026, driven by higher value-added products [11] - EBIT margin is forecasted to increase from 10.5% in 2022 to 13.0% in 2026, reflecting operational efficiency gains [11] - Net profit margin is projected to rise from 8.6% in 2022 to 11.5% in 2026, indicating stronger profitability [11]