Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology (688498) Haitong Securities·2024-09-29 00:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 95.96% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, reaching 120 million yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 44.56% to 10.75 million yuan due to reduced government subsidies and increased competition [6][7]. - The company has set ambitious revenue targets in its stock incentive plan, aiming for at least 220 million yuan in 2024 and a cumulative revenue of 520 million yuan from 2024 to 2025 [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand and the growth in high-speed optical chip demand driven by AIGC, with projected net profits of 50 million yuan, 139 million yuan, and 213 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][11]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 33.42%, down 5.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the R&D expenses increased by 67.12% to 22.05 million yuan, representing 18.35% of revenue [6][8]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to recover significantly in 2024, with an expected increase of 97% to 284 million yuan, followed by 467 million yuan in 2025 and 649 million yuan in 2026 [8][11]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 46.4% in 2025 and 48.2% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11]. Market Comparison - The company’s stock price has fluctuated between 78.30 yuan and 208.00 yuan over the past year, with a closing price of 103.44 yuan as of September 27, 2024 [2][3]. - The company’s performance is compared against the Haidong Composite Index, with a relative performance showing a significant decline in the past months [3][4]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen high growth in its telecommunications products, with a revenue increase of 94.61% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, driven by a recovery in traditional 2.5G/10G DFB orders and the promotion of 10G EML products [6][7]. - The data center segment also experienced substantial growth, with a revenue increase of 408.78% year-on-year, attributed to the recovery in traditional data center market orders and the successful shipment of CW light source products [6][10]. Valuation - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the range of 70-80x for 2025, suggesting a reasonable valuation range of 113.40 to 129.60 yuan per share [7][9].