Freshpet(US:FRPT) INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-09-29 00:37Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for Freshpet [1] Core Insights - Freshpet's revenue for H1 2024 reached $459 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, with a gross profit of $182 million, up 65.5% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 39.7% [1] - The company continues to penetrate the market through its refrigerator distribution model, with Freshpet Fridges installed in approximately 27,497 retail locations as of June 30, 2024 [1] - Strong marketing efforts have increased customer loyalty, with the proportion of super heavy and heavy users rising from 27% in 2020 to 37% in H1 2024 [1] - Freshpet has been expanding its production capacity since 2019, with a new Texas factory expected to generate $1.8 billion in total output by 2027 [1] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $984 million, $1.205 billion, and $1.455 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of $20 million, $39 million, and $56 million [1][3] Financial Summary - For 2024E, Freshpet's revenue is estimated at $766.9 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.3% [3][8] - The net profit for 2024E is projected to be $20.1 million, marking a significant recovery from a loss of $33.6 million in 2023A [3][7] - The adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow significantly, with a growth rate of 94.6% in 2024E [8] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 35.7% in 2024E, with a net profit margin of 3.2% [8]