The market expects Freshpet (FRPT) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on August 4, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than ...

Core Viewpoint - Freshpet is set to report earnings on August 4, 2025, with expectations of significant year-over-year growth in earnings and revenue, indicating positive business momentum [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the upcoming earnings report, analysts expect Freshpet to post earnings of $0.12 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 500% [2]. - The revenue forecast for the same quarter is $267.74 million, which represents a 13.81% increase from the prior-year quarter [2]. - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $1.24 per share, showing a growth of 61.04%, while revenue is expected to reach $1.12 billion, indicating a 15.3% increase from the previous year [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Freshpet are crucial as they reflect short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating optimism about profitability [3]. - Over the past month, there has been a 2.36% decline in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate, leading to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for Freshpet [5]. Valuation Metrics - Freshpet is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 57.98, significantly higher than the industry average of 16.27, indicating a premium valuation [6]. - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.36, which is lower than the Food - Miscellaneous industry average of 1.65, suggesting a more favorable growth outlook relative to its price [7]. Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 169, placing it in the bottom 32% of over 250 industries [7]. - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% of rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the competitive landscape [8].

Group 1 - Freshpet, Inc. will report its second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2025, on August 4, 2025, before market open [1] - A conference call with the executive management team is scheduled for August 4, 2025, at 8:00 a.m. ET to discuss the results [2] - The conference call will be available for live broadcast on the company's website and will be archived for later access [3] Group 2 - Freshpet's mission is to provide fresh food for pets, using locally sourced ingredients and cooking in small batches to maintain quality [4] - The company's products are available in various retail formats across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, as well as online in the U.S. [5]

Company Performance - Freshpet's stock closed at $72.45, reflecting a -2.45% change from the previous day's closing price, underperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.94% [1] - The stock has decreased by 15.27% over the past month, contrasting with the Consumer Staples sector's gain of 2.68% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.67% [1] Earnings Forecast - The upcoming EPS for Freshpet is projected at $0.1, indicating a significant increase of 433.33% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $268.55 million, representing a 14.16% growth year-over-year [2] Annual Estimates - For the entire year, earnings are forecasted at $1.27 per share and revenue at $1.13 billion, showing increases of +64.94% and +15.61% respectively compared to the previous year [3] - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates reflect changing business dynamics, with positive revisions indicating analyst optimism about profitability [3] Valuation Metrics - Freshpet has a Forward P/E ratio of 58.44, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 16.92 [6] - The PEG ratio for Freshpet stands at 1.24, compared to the industry average PEG ratio of 1.58 [6] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 178, placing it in the bottom 28% of over 250 industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Company Performance - Freshpet's stock closed at $78.89, reflecting a +1.87% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.55% [1] - Over the past month, Freshpet's shares have decreased by 2.74%, underperforming the Consumer Staples sector's gain of 1.91% and the S&P 500's gain of 6.29% [1] Earnings Forecast - Freshpet is expected to report an EPS of $0.11, indicating a significant growth of 466.67% compared to the same quarter last year [2] - The revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter is $268.8 million, representing a 14.26% increase year-over-year [2] - For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates predict earnings of $1.39 per share and revenue of $1.13 billion, reflecting year-over-year changes of +80.52% and +15.88%, respectively [3] Analyst Estimates and Rankings - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Freshpet indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business operations [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which incorporates estimate changes, currently ranks Freshpet at 3 (Hold) [6] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 0.29% over the past month [6] Valuation Metrics - Freshpet has a Forward P/E ratio of 55.81, significantly higher than the industry average of 16.57, indicating a premium valuation [7] - The current PEG ratio for Freshpet is 1.17, compared to the industry average of 1.67, suggesting a more favorable growth outlook relative to its price [8] Industry Context - The Food - Miscellaneous industry, part of the Consumer Staples sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 165, placing it in the bottom 33% of over 250 industries [9] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three stocks—Target, Celsius Holdings, and Freshpet—that have underperformed but may have potential for recovery in the near future, despite their current challenges [1][2][3]. Group 1: Target - Target's stock has decreased by 33% over the past year, attributed to negative store comps and declining net sales over two consecutive quarters [4][5]. - The stock's yield has risen to 4.6%, and the company has a history of increasing dividends for 53 consecutive years, with expectations for a potential hike soon [5][6]. - Target faces challenges in regaining customer trust due to political controversies that have alienated both conservative and liberal shoppers [8][9]. - The company has a payout ratio of less than 50% of its trailing earnings, indicating room for dividend increases while aiming for a turnaround [6][10]. Group 2: Celsius Holdings - Celsius Holdings has experienced a 42% decline in stock value over the past year, despite being one of the year's biggest market winners with over 60% growth [11]. - The company has seen significant revenue growth in previous years, but recent quarters have shown year-over-year declines [12]. - The acquisition of Alani Nu is expected to positively impact market share and revenue, with results anticipated to improve starting from the current quarter [13]. Group 3: Freshpet - Freshpet's stock has dropped by 39%, holding a 3.5% share of the dog food market but dominating the fresh or frozen pet food segment with 96% market share in brick-and-mortar retailers [14]. - The company has consistently achieved over 27% top-line growth for seven years, but it has revised its growth expectations down to 15% to 18% for the current year [15]. - Despite the decline, Freshpet's stock remains at a premium valuation, trading at three times sales and 37 times next year's earnings, indicating potential for recovery if growth resumes [16].

Core Viewpoint - Freshpet Inc. is facing significant challenges despite some growth in retail presence and revenue, with a bearish outlook on its stock due to poor fundamentals and unrealistic market expectations [4][6][22]. Company Performance - Freshpet's revenue increased by 18% year-over-year in 1Q25, driven by a 15% volume gain and a 3% favorable price/mix [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose from $31 million in 1Q24 to $36 million in 1Q25, but this figure is considered misleading [5][7]. - The company missed earnings estimates in its 1Q25 report and lowered its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $190-$210 million from a previous estimate of at least $210 million [6]. Financial Health - Freshpet has consistently burned cash, with negative free cash flow (FCF) annually since 2017 and in 34 of the last 36 quarters [12][13]. - Cumulatively, Freshpet has burned through $1.2 billion in FCF since 2019, which is 29% of its enterprise value [13]. - The company's total operating expenses averaged 106% of revenue over the last five years, increasing from 96% in 1Q24 to 104% in 1Q25 [10][11]. Market Position - Freshpet holds just over 1% market share in a pet food industry dominated by larger companies like Nestle and Mars, which together account for 61% of the market [17][18]. - The company faces competition from both large corporations and private label brands, making it difficult to gain market share [16][19]. Profitability Issues - Freshpet's net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) fell to -$10 million in 1Q25 from $9 million in 1Q24, indicating declining profitability [20]. - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) decreased from a peak of 4% in 2024 to 2% in the TTM ending 1Q25 [20]. Valuation Concerns - The current stock price implies that Freshpet must grow profits at accelerated rates and capture significant market share, which is deemed unrealistic [22][23]. - To justify its price of approximately $80 per share, Freshpet would need to generate $11.7 billion in sales by 2034, which is 12 times its TTM sales [23]. - Alternative scenarios suggest a potential downside of 40% to 68% based on more realistic growth expectations [25][26]. Long-term Outlook - Freshpet's economic book value is estimated to be less than $1 per share, indicating that equity investors may not see significant returns [33].

Freshpet (FRPT) 2025 Conference Summary Company Overview - Freshpet is a leader in fresh pet food in the United States, consistently growing at double digits and tracking to over $1 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue [1] Industry Insights - The pet food industry is experiencing challenges, with economic uncertainty affecting consumer behavior, particularly in decisions related to pet ownership [2][5] - Long-term tailwinds for the industry remain strong, as consumers continue to prioritize better nutrition for themselves and their pets [3][4] Key Financial Metrics - Freshpet's growth rate for the second quarter is approximately 13%, with steady performance observed [7] - The company adjusted its net sales target to a growth range of 15% to 18% and EBITDA guidance from $190 million to $210 million [29] Strategic Initiatives - Freshpet is focusing on deepening consumer insights to target "Most Valuable Pet Parents" (MVPs), a demographic that shows high interest in purchasing Freshpet products [11][15] - The company has identified 2 million MVPs currently, with a potential market of over 7 million [15] - Initiatives include enhancing media targeting, adjusting creative strategies, and improving distribution points to better serve MVPs [15][36] Competitive Advantages - Freshpet differentiates itself through its unique product offerings, manufacturing expertise, and a robust refrigerated supply chain [22][23] - The company is investing in new manufacturing technology to improve efficiency and product variety, with a new production line expected to start in Q4 [26][27] Marketing and Advertising Strategy - Freshpet is shifting its marketing focus towards digital platforms and streaming services to better engage with consumers [69][70] - The company is experiencing a breakdown in the correlation between advertising spend and sales, attributed to economic stress among consumers [60][61] Distribution Strategy - Freshpet is expanding its distribution network, focusing on both retail and e-commerce channels, with a significant increase in e-commerce sales observed [49] - The company aims to leverage its existing distribution points to enhance online shopping experiences [49] Future Outlook - Freshpet remains committed to its long-term financial targets, including a gross margin of 48% and EBITDA of 22% [80] - The company is optimistic about its ability to adapt to market conditions and maintain growth, despite current challenges [81] Conclusion - Freshpet is positioned for significant growth in the pet food industry, with a strong focus on innovation, consumer engagement, and strategic marketing initiatives [18][19][107]

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Core Insights - Freshpet, Inc. reported mixed first-quarter 2025 results, with net sales exceeding estimates but earnings per share falling short and decreasing year over year. The company has also revised its 2025 guidance downward [1][2][8]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share for the quarter were 9 cents, down from 21 cents in the same quarter last year, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 13 cents [2]. - Consolidated net sales reached $263.2 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $259 million, and increased by 17.6% from $223.8 million in the prior year, driven by a 14.9% increase in volume and a 2.7% improvement in price/mix [2]. - Adjusted gross profit rose 18.5% year over year to $120.2 million, with an adjusted gross margin expanding by 40 basis points to 45.7% [3]. - Adjusted SG&A expenses increased 19.5% year over year to $84.7 million, representing 32.2% of net sales, primarily due to higher media spending [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $35.5 million, up 16.2% from $30.6 million in the previous year, attributed to higher adjusted gross profit despite increased SG&A expenses [5]. Financial Health - At the end of the quarter, Freshpet had cash and cash equivalents of $243.7 million and total debt of $395.7 million [7]. - Cash provided by operations was $4.8 million, a decrease of $0.6 million from the same period last year, with capital spending for the quarter at $26.5 million [7]. 2025 Guidance - The company revised its 2025 guidance, now expecting net sales of $1.12-$1.15 billion, indicating a 15-18% increase from 2024, down from the previous estimate of $1.18-$1.21 billion [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA is now projected to be $190-$210 million, reduced from the earlier estimate of $210 million, compared to adjusted EBITDA of $161.8 million in 2024 [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Freshpet's stock has declined by 46.2%, contrasting with a 1% growth in the industry [10].