SHUANGHUAN COMPANY(002472) 民生证券·2024-09-29 12:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 25.05 yuan [3][2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance is in line with expectations, with a projected net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.5-2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.21%-22.26% [2] - The company's growth is driven by the expansion of its intelligent drive mechanism sector and the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle gear market [2] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with plans to build a factory in Hungary and expand its overseas customer base, including securing projects from Toyota and a well-known European luxury brand [2] - The intelligent execution mechanism business is growing rapidly, with revenue reaching 280 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 82.2% [2] - The company is also making progress in the high-precision reducer business for robots, with strong profitability and a wide range of solutions [2] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 10.32 billion yuan, 12.45 billion yuan, and 14.94 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.052 billion yuan, 1.337 billion yuan, and 1.662 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [2] - EPS is projected to be 1.24 yuan, 1.58 yuan, and 1.97 yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [2] - The PE ratio is expected to be 19x, 15x, and 12x for 2024-2026, respectively [2] Industry and Market Analysis - The company's new energy gear business holds a 40%-50% market share in the domestic new energy vehicle market [2] - The company is benefiting from the growth of the new energy vehicle industry, with new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales expected to reach 3.1 million units in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30% [2] - The company's intelligent execution mechanism business is expanding into various smart terminal fields, including smart office, smart cars, smart homes, and future life applications [2] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 22%-23% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 10.11% in 2024 to 11.13% in 2026 [5] - ROE is expected to grow from 10.25% in 2024 to 14.39% in 2026 [5] - The company's asset turnover ratio is forecasted to improve from 0.62 in 2024 to 0.77 in 2026 [5]