Investment Rating and Core Views - Investment Rating: Overweight (Initiation) [1] - Core Views: The company is a pioneer in the ancient gold jewelry market, leveraging its high-end product positioning and differentiated competition to drive growth through brand momentum, single-store efficiency, and store expansion [2] Company Overview - Company Profile: Founded in 2009, the company is a leading brand in ancient gold jewelry, focusing on the research, design, and sale of ancient gold products [11] - Organizational Structure: The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founder and his son holding a combined 62.03% of the shares. Employee incentives are robust, with multiple employee持股 platforms established [11][12] - Financial Performance: The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.18 billion, a 145.6% YoY increase, and net profit reaching RMB 416 million, a 340.4% YoY increase [14] Market and Industry Analysis - Ancient Gold Market Growth: The ancient gold market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching a market size of RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [2] - High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs): The company targets HNWIs, with a penetration rate of 5.7% among China's 3.16 million HNWIs in 2022. The company's products cater to the rational, self-indulgent, and social needs of HNWIs [39][40] Growth Drivers - Brand Momentum and User Expansion: The company's brand momentum is increasing, with a growing penetration rate among HNWIs and younger, middle-to-high-income consumers [4] - Single-Store Efficiency: The company's single-store efficiency is expected to continue improving, driven by product diversity, optimized channel conditions, and price adjustments [2] - Store Expansion: The company plans to open 13 new stores in the next two years, maintaining high standards and controlled expansion [2] Product and Channel Strategy - Product Innovation: The company focuses on R&D, with the founder leading the product development team. It has launched 324 new products and 419 iterations from 2021 to 2023, with new and iterated products accounting for over 12% of total revenue [33][34] - Channel Expansion: The company primarily operates through offline channels, with 88.6% of revenue coming from offline sales in 2023. It focuses on high-end commercial centers in first-tier and new first-tier cities [21] Financial Projections - Revenue and Profit Forecast: The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.006 billion, RMB 1.435 billion, and RMB 1.818 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.6x, 13.8x, and 10.9x [2] - Gross Margin and Expense Ratio: The company's gross margin has remained stable at around 42%, with a declining expense ratio due to economies of scale. The net profit margin improved to 16.7% in H1 2024 [16] Competitive Positioning - Market Share: The company holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market, ranking seventh. It is the only brand among the top ten players that focuses exclusively on ancient gold jewelry and operates all offline stores through a direct model [31][32] - Comparison with Competitors: The company's revenue and profit levels are lower than its peers due to its selective store locations and smaller store count. However, its gross and net profit margins are industry-leading, driven by its high-end product positioning and direct operation model [23][24]
老铺黄金：/饰品/公司深度研究报告：古法金奢侈品先行者，产品渠道铸造品牌势能