PSBC(01658) 国盛证券·2024-10-03 15:07Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" [3][5]. Core Views - The adjustment of agency deposit rates is expected to significantly enhance profits by approximately 17%, with a projected reduction in agency fees by 13% to 100.6 billion yuan, resulting in a savings of 15.1 billion yuan [1][5]. - The new pricing scheme for agency fees will be linked to revenue growth, which is anticipated to stabilize the cost-to-income ratio in the long term and support steady profit growth [5][6]. - The bank's unique partnership with the postal system provides a strong deposit absorption capability, mitigating the impact of the fee reduction on deposit levels [5][6]. Summary by Sections Agency Fee Rate Adjustment - The agency fee rates for various deposit types have been significantly reduced, with the overall average rate dropping from 1.24% to 1.08%, a decrease of 16 basis points [1][8]. - Specific reductions include: - Demand deposits from 2.33% to 1.992% - Time deposits (1 year) from 1.10% to 0.999% - 2-year deposits from 0.35% to 0.149% - 3-year deposits from 0.10% to 0.020% [1][8]. Financial Projections - For 2023, the bank's total agency fees are projected to be 115.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% despite a decrease in the average fee rate [2][6]. - The bank's net profit for 2024 is estimated at 88.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [6][7]. Cost-to-Income Ratio - The cost-to-income ratio for 2023 is reported at 64.82%, with expectations for improvement following the fee adjustments [5][7]. - The bank aims to align the growth of agency fees with revenue growth, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [5][6].