Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a 2024 PE of 20x [2][3] Core Views - The company is a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, with a well-established downstream client system including international brands like Nike, Deckers, VF, and PUMA [1] - Despite a challenging industry environment in 2022-2023, the company demonstrated resilience with stable profit quality and continued capacity expansion [1] - In 2024, the company's revenue and net profit grew by 25% and 29% YoY respectively, with gross and net margins reaching 28.2% and 16.4% [1] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of around 15% from 2025 to 2026, driven by new client collaborations and increased market share with existing clients [1] Orders - Short-term: Most of the company's core brand clients are expected to see positive YoY order growth in 2024, with Deckers, Adidas, UA, VF, and Nike showing promising trends [1][17] - Medium-term: The company has established a high-quality client structure and a replicable client expansion and management system, which is expected to drive revenue growth [1][19] - The company's collaboration with Nike is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased market share in Nike's footwear procurement [24] Capacity - The company's capacity utilization reached 97.3% in H1 2024, up 11.3 percentage points YoY, driving an 18.4% YoY increase in production [2] - The company plans to expand its production capacity, with an estimated CAGR of around 15% from 2025 to 2026, matching the growth in order demand [2] - The company's production facilities are primarily located in northern Vietnam, with plans to establish new production bases in Indonesia to reduce policy risks [2][34] Profitability and Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 240.0/275.7/314.9 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 19.3%/14.8%/14.2% [2] - Net profit is expected to reach 39.0/45.3/52.2 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 21.9%/16.0%/15.3% [2] - Gross margins are expected to remain stable at around 26.6%-26.7% from 2024 to 2026, with management and R&D expenses also remaining steady [42] Industry and Competitive Position - The company's client structure is more diversified compared to peers, with the top five clients accounting for over 80% of revenue, providing stability and growth potential [21] - The company's production efficiency and cost control are superior to competitors, with lower labor and manufacturing costs contributing to higher gross margins [36] - The company's early investment in Vietnam has provided significant cost advantages, and further expansion into Indonesia is expected to enhance its competitive position [35]
华利集团：产能加速扩张，夯实运动产业链龙头地位