山西汾酒：首次覆盖报告：汾酒复兴，清香天下

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [1][4]. Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned as a leading brand in the clear aroma liquor sector, demonstrating strong organizational efficiency, a well-structured product lineup, and successful high-end and national expansion, making it one of the few companies capable of navigating through industry cycles [1][2]. - The company has shown resilience in performance even during industry downturns, with a revenue CAGR of 29% and a net profit CAGR of 45% from 2015 to 2023, ranking first and second among peers respectively [1][17]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a continued upward trajectory in net profit, with expected figures of 127.2 billion, 152.4 billion, and 180.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 19.8%, and 18.7% respectively [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shanxi Fenjiu is recognized as a pioneer in the clear aroma liquor category, with a rich historical background and significant accolades, including being the only Chinese liquor brand to win a gold medal at the Panama International Exposition in 1915 [15][16]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission as the ultimate controller [20][22]. Historical Review - The company experienced a decline in its leading position during the late 1990s but has since undergone significant reforms starting in 2009, leading to a resurgence in performance [1][2][15]. - From 2015 onwards, the company has capitalized on the recovery of the liquor industry, achieving notable growth even amidst market challenges [1][2]. Competitive Advantages - The brand's historical and cultural significance provides a strong competitive moat, particularly in the mid-to-high-end clear aroma liquor market, where competition is minimal [2][3]. - The company has optimized its organizational structure and marketing strategies since 2017, enhancing its operational efficiency and brand cultivation [2][3]. Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned for future growth, with a focus on expanding its market share in southern China and enhancing its product offerings, particularly in the high-end segment [2][3]. - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected revenue growth and profitability driven by strategic product upgrades and market expansion efforts [1][3].