CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(SZ:000625) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-08 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a wholesale sales volume of 213,000 vehicles in September, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% but a month-on-month increase of 13.9%. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to September 2024 reached 1.905 million vehicles, up 11.2% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in sales is attributed to the growth in new energy vehicle sales, supported by subsidy policies and the launch of new models. In September, the company's self-owned new energy wholesale sales reached 54,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% and a month-on-month increase of 11.6% [2]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy with a series of new product launches, including the Deep Blue L07 and Avita 07, which have shown strong demand [2]. - The company's overseas sales have also seen significant growth, with September's overseas sales reaching 31,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 58.2% [2]. - The investment suggestion highlights the company's electric and intelligent transformation, projecting revenues of 183 billion, 208.6 billion, and 234.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.01 billion, 10.5 billion, and 13.45 billion yuan [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 151.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 24.8%. Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 183 billion, 208.6 billion, and 234.6 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 21.0%, 14.0%, and 12.5% [3][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11.3 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant drop to 8.01 billion yuan in 2024, followed by recoveries to 10.5 billion and 13.45 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.14 yuan in 2023, dropping to 0.81 yuan in 2024, and then increasing to 1.06 yuan and 1.36 yuan in 2025 and 2026 [3][13].