Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Tianfeng Securities·2024-10-09 00:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [5] Core Views - The company has focused on multi-dimensional marketing during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, achieving excellent sales performance and gradually improving inventory management [1] - The company is strategically controlling volume and maintaining prices for its premium products, which is expected to support long-term brand value [2] - The company is capitalizing on the mass market by increasing sales of its mid-range products, with significant growth observed in specific regions [3] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 65 billion, 69 billion, and 76 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -7.5%, +5.9%, and +9.5% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 13 billion, 14 billion, and 16 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -27.9%, +7.8%, and +14.4% [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 3.83, 4.13, and 4.73 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][10] Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported a revenue of 7,080.96 million yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 16.93% [4] - The net profit for 2023 was 1,771.30 million yuan, showing a growth of 5.09% [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 17X, 16X, and 14X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][4]