Tianneng Battery (SH:688819) Haitong Securities·2024-10-09 04:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company is a leader in the lead-acid battery sector, with a market share exceeding 45% in the electric light vehicle lead-acid battery market. The company has established a product system that includes lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion batteries, and new material batteries such as hydrogen fuel cells and sodium-ion batteries. In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 21.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.30%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.32% [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from favorable industry policies, including subsidies for replacing old electric bicycles and relaxed weight limits for lead-acid battery models. As an industry leader, the company is well-positioned to take advantage of these policies [5] - The company is actively upgrading its products and investing in cutting-edge technologies, including new lead-acid batteries, lithium battery systems, hydrogen engines, and sodium-ion batteries [5] - The company is advancing its globalization strategy, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence. As of June 30, 2024, the company had established seven local offices in different countries and signed agreements with over 30 overseas brand distributors [5] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.514 billion yuan, 3.092 billion yuan, and 3.472 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 23.0%, and 12.3% [5][6] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 47.748 billion yuan in 2023 to 58.446 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.4% [6][10] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve gradually, reaching 19.2% by 2026 [7][10] Product and Market Outlook - The company expects lead-acid battery shipments to reach 131.16 billion VAh, 141.66 billion VAh, and 152.99 billion VAh from 2024 to 2026, with a stable unit price of 0.37 yuan/VAh [7][8] - The company is also focusing on enhancing its cost control capabilities, which is expected to positively impact its gross margin over the forecast period [7][10]