Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue showed steady growth, driven by its own-brand business and closed-system product revenue from enterprise clients [3] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, particularly in heated tobacco (HNB) and medical vaporization products, positioning itself for future growth [4] - The global HNB market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2023 to 2028, reaching USD 75.51 billion by 2028 [4] - The company is expected to benefit from increasing overseas demand for new tobacco products and potential market share gains from major clients [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 3.286 billion, up 14.1% YoY, while net profit declined by 22.5% YoY to RMB 379 million [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.323 billion, up 4.0% YoY, and net profit of RMB 1.062 billion, down 11.9% YoY [3] - The company's own-brand revenue grew by 71.9% YoY in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 1.116 billion, with continued strong growth expected in Q3 [3] - R&D expenses increased by 23.7% YoY in the first half of 2024, reaching RMB 760 million [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 1.7 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 2.48 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - Revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.87% and 16.65% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit growth is expected to accelerate to 20.45% and 20.98% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 43x, 35x, and 29x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on digital marketing and rapid response to consumer demand for its own-brand products [3] - It is expanding its international market presence and localizing operations to enhance its competitive edge [3] - The company's HNB product portfolio is gaining recognition, and potential orders from major clients like British American Tobacco could drive future growth [4] Financial Ratios - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 38.81% in 2023 to 40.88% by 2026 [7] - ROE is projected to increase from 7.68% in 2023 to 9.05% by 2026 [7] - The company's net debt ratio is expected to remain negative, indicating a strong financial position [7]
思摩尔国际：Q3营收稳健增长，蓄力HNB业务增长