CNNP(601985) 海通证券·2024-10-09 08:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][5] Core Views - The company is one of the two oligopolists in the nuclear power sector, demonstrating both growth potential and stability. Established in January 2008 and listed in 2015, the company operates in clean energy projects including nuclear, wind, and solar energy. In 2023, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 74.96 billion and 10.62 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-over-year growth of 5.2% and 17.9% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit of 37.44 billion and 5.88 billion yuan, with year-over-year changes of 3.2% and -2.7% [4][6]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 74.96 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.2% and 17.9% respectively [6][10]. Nuclear Power Capacity - The company has a robust nuclear power resource reserve, with 23.75 million kilowatts of operational capacity and 13.92 million and 6.718 million kilowatts under construction and approved for construction, respectively. In 2024, the company received approval for three new units, which will add 3.076 million kilowatts to its capacity [4][5]. - The projected nuclear power capacity from 2024 to 2026 is expected to reach 24.96 million, 26.17 million, and 27.56 million kilowatts, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% if all approved units are operational by 2030 [4][7]. New Energy Growth - The company’s operational new energy capacity reached 22.37 million kilowatts, with an additional 14.72 million kilowatts under construction. The company aims to achieve 30 million kilowatts of new energy capacity by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5]. - The average electricity price for new energy in the first half of 2024 was approximately 0.375 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 0.065 yuan per kilowatt-hour year-over-year, leading to a net profit per kilowatt-hour of about 0.105 yuan, down 0.051 yuan year-over-year [4][5]. Financing and Asset Management - The company plans to raise up to 14 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the construction of several nuclear power units. This move is expected to support the long-term value of the company [4][5]. - The company has also issued REITs with a total scale of 7.5 billion and 5 billion yuan, aimed at reducing debt and enhancing asset liquidity [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 11.08 billion, 11.77 billion, and 12.80 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026. The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2024 is projected to be between 20 and 22 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 11.8 to 12.98 yuan per share [5][9].