奥瑞金：多元布局促成长，关注行业整合效能释放

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the metal packaging industry, leveraging an integrated layout to enhance manufacturing, service, and innovation advantages [1]. - The three-piece can segment shows strong customer advantages and a diversified approach to client and regional expansion [1]. - The two-piece can segment is entering a phase of orderly expansion, with expectations for industry consolidation and profit optimization [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from improving profitability in the two-piece can sector, especially if the market structure continues to evolve positively [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a large specialized metal packaging enterprise in China, with annual production capacities of approximately 9 billion three-piece cans and 13.5 billion two-piece cans [1][11]. - It provides comprehensive services including brand planning, packaging design, manufacturing, filling services, and marketing support [1]. Three-Piece Can Segment - The three-piece can market in China has a CR3 of 66%, with the company holding about 27% market share [1]. - The company has a long-term strategic partnership with China Red Bull, which significantly contributes to its revenue stability [1][32]. - The three-piece can revenue has shown steady growth, with a CAGR of 7% from 2012 to 2022 [1][32]. Two-Piece Can Segment - The two-piece can segment is experiencing growth driven by increasing beer canization rates, which are expected to rise from 30% in 2022 to over 60% in developed countries [1][41]. - The company has seen a CAGR of 31% in two-piece can revenue from 2014 to 2022, with major clients including top beer brands [1][14]. - The overall gross margin for the two-piece can segment is projected to improve, with a current gross margin of 15.2% in 2023, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1][15]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 7.8%, 7.5%, and 8.2% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 18.9%, 12.8%, and 14.3% respectively [1][2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13x for 2024, which is below the average of comparable companies, indicating potential undervaluation [1][2].