牧原股份：降成本增出栏，Q3业绩预喜

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 54.53 [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a profit of RMB 90-100 billion in Q3, showing a significant year-on-year increase due to cost reductions and rising pig prices. The profit per head for fattened pigs may exceed RMB 600 [2][3]. - The company has a strong ability to realize profits in the future, supported by continuous cost reductions and stable increases in breeding sows [2][5]. - The company is entering a stable development phase with lower capital expenditures and improving cash flow, which may lead to more positive returns for investors [5][6]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a profit of RMB 90-100 billion in Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 861% to 967%. The total number of pigs slaughtered in Q3 is estimated at 2.776 million, with a profit per head of approximately RMB 450-550 [2][3]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average complete cost in Q3 is estimated to be around RMB 13.7-14 per kilogram, a decrease of over RMB 0.5 per kilogram compared to the previous quarter. The average price for fattened pigs in Q3 is RMB 18.89 per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18% [3][5]. Breeding and Market Conditions - The company has approximately 3.32 million breeding sows as of the end of Q3, with a slight increase from the previous quarter. The industry is experiencing low enthusiasm for replenishing breeding sows, which may support high pig prices in the future [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 188 billion, RMB 399 billion, and RMB 368 billion, respectively. The corresponding BVPS (Book Value Per Share) is expected to be RMB 14.94, RMB 22.03, and RMB 28.56 [2][6].