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阿斯麦:首次覆盖报告:算力造铲人,先进制程时代开启新一轮增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for ASML (ASML.US) with a target price of $1100 based on a FY2025 Forward PE of 36x [3][12]. Core Insights - ASML is positioned as a monopolistic manufacturer of high-end lithography machines, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the semiconductor industry driven by AI demand and process iteration [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of €272 billion, €349 billion, and €381 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, with GAAP net profits of €73 billion, €108 billion, and €121 billion for the same periods [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - ASML's revenue is projected to be stable in FY2024, with strong growth anticipated in FY2025 due to increased AI demand and semiconductor industry recovery. The company expects to ship 53, 74, and 85 EUV machines in FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, with EUV revenue projected at €9.9 billion, €15.6 billion, and €19 billion [8][10]. - The total system sales revenue is expected to be €215 billion, €280 billion, and €299 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.2%, +30.6%, and +6.8% [8][10]. 2. Historical and Cyclical Review - The revenue cycle of semiconductor equipment manufacturers is closely tied to process breakthroughs and the evolution of Moore's Law, with ASML being a direct beneficiary [15][16]. - ASML's self-reinforcing mechanism links process breakthroughs with increased capital expenditure from downstream customers, creating a closed loop that enhances its revenue [16][18]. 3. Lithography Demand and Moore's Law - The demand for lithography machines is expected to continue alongside the extension of Moore's Law, with ASML maintaining its leading position through continuous technological advancements [21][30]. - The introduction of High-NA EUV lithography machines is anticipated to significantly enhance chip performance, with ASML receiving numerous orders from major clients [44][47]. 4. Advanced Process Iteration and Expansion - The advanced process requires EUV lithography machines, with the demand for EUV expected to grow significantly as logic chips evolve towards 2nm and below [33][34]. - Major memory manufacturers are also adopting EUV technology, with HBM entering a significant expansion phase, further driving demand for lithography machines [43][41]. 5. Company Overview - ASML's revenue structure is heavily reliant on system sales, with a significant contribution from both logic and memory chips. The company reported system revenue of €219 billion and service revenue of €56 billion in 2023 [62][63]. - The company has a strong customer base, with significant revenue contributions from Taiwan, China, and South Korea, driven by the expansion of advanced and mature processes [62][65].