圣农发展：Q3盈利环比增逾1.1亿，成本优势日益凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter profit increase of over 110 million yuan, with September being the best month in terms of profitability for the first three quarters [1] - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 370 million yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 43.2%-50% [1] - The company has been focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements, which have led to a historical best level of non-material costs in a single quarter [1] - The sales volume of chicken products increased by 23.9% year-on-year, reaching 1.023 million tons in the first nine months of 2024 [1] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 184.11 billion yuan, 201.53 billion yuan, and 220.59 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 18.487 billion yuan, with a slight decline to 18.411 billion yuan in 2024, followed by growth to 20.153 billion yuan in 2025 and 22.059 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 664 million yuan in 2023 to 846 million yuan in 2024, and further to 948 million yuan in 2025 and 1.042 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.6% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2024, reaching 13.5% by 2026 [2] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 6.4% in 2023 to 7.9% in 2026 [2] Cash Flow and Investment Outlook - Operating cash flow is projected to increase from 2.291 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.492 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant rise in net profit expected [3] - The company is expected to maintain a stable capital expenditure, with projected capital expenditures around 1.375 billion yuan annually from 2024 to 2026 [3] - The net increase in cash is expected to be positive in 2024, with a projected increase of 916 million yuan [3]