Peacebird(SH:603877) GF SECURITIES·2024-10-10 07:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.55 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 13.63 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 is expected to be under pressure, with revenue projected at 3.146 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 12.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 171 million CNY, down 31.73% [2]. - The second quarter of 2024 shows a revenue of 1.34 billion CNY, reflecting a 12.30% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit of 12 million CNY, down 62.91% [2]. - Performance varies by brand and channel, with women's wear, men's wear, and children's wear experiencing revenue declines of 10.30%, 6.69%, and 13.98% respectively in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The gross margin decreased to 56.15%, down 2.08 percentage points from the previous year, while the expense ratio increased to 51.18%, up 2.58 percentage points [3]. - The company anticipates cautious performance in Q3 2024, but expects improvement in Q4 2024 due to potential policy changes and organizational restructuring effects [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 0.97 CNY, 1.24 CNY, and 1.52 CNY respectively, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times for 2024 [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 7.247 billion CNY, a decline of 7.0% from 2023, with a net profit of 460 million CNY, reflecting a 9.0% increase from the previous year [4]. - The company’s EBITDA is projected to be 1.292 billion CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 9.3% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2024 [4].