中闽能源：海风化电，一“闽”惊人

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 14/13/12 for 2024-2026 [7][11] Core Views - The company is a leading offshore wind operator in Fujian, with a strong profitability profile in the industry [2] - Fujian's rich wind resources and declining costs are expected to enhance the economic viability of offshore wind projects [3] - The company benefits from regional advantages and is expected to accelerate project approvals in Fujian, with significant growth potential [4] - The parent group has committed to injecting additional offshore wind assets, further boosting the company's capacity and profitability [5] - The company's offshore wind projects are well-positioned for local consumption, reducing concerns about curtailment and transmission issues [6] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 17.93/19.12/20.66 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with a year-on-year growth of 4%/7%/8% [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 7.07/7.59/8.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4%/7%/9% [7] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to be 14/13/12 for 2024-2026, indicating a favorable valuation [7] Industry and Market Context - Fujian's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to add 4.1 GW of grid-connected offshore wind capacity, with a total development scale of 10.3 GW in provincial waters [4] - The company's offshore wind projects are expected to benefit from the region's abundant wind resources and high utilization hours, with an average of 3,905 hours for offshore wind in 2023 [20][37] - The company's projects are strategically located in areas with strong wind resources, such as Fuzhou, Pingtan, and Lianjiang, ensuring high utilization rates and minimal curtailment [37][40] Operational Highlights - As of H1 2024, the company's total installed capacity is 957.3 MW, with 907.3 MW from wind power (including 611.3 MW onshore and 296 MW offshore), 20 MW from solar, and 30 MW from biomass [2] - The company's Pinghai Bay offshore wind project is a flagship project in the southeastern coastal region, contributing significantly to its profitability [2] - The company's parent group has completed the integration of MinTou HaiDian, and future projects like Ningde MinTou and Xiapu MinDong are expected to be injected into the company, further expanding its offshore wind capacity [5][20] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong regional advantage in Fujian, with a significant share of the province's offshore wind market [4] - The company's offshore wind projects benefit from high utilization hours and favorable wind conditions, leading to superior profitability compared to peers [37][40] - The company's parent group's support and asset injection commitments provide a solid foundation for future growth [5][20] Key Assumptions - The company's offshore wind capacity is expected to grow steadily, with assets like Pinghai Bay Phase III and Ningde Xiapu projects being injected into the company [12] - Utilization hours for onshore wind in Fujian are assumed to rebound to 2,900 hours in 2024, while offshore wind utilization hours are expected to remain at 3,905 hours [12] - The company's onshore wind feed-in tariff in Fujian is assumed to be 0.60 yuan/kWh, while offshore wind is assumed to be 0.85 yuan/kWh [12]