Eastroc Beverage(SH:605499) HTSC·2024-10-10 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 251.44 [1][5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 12.4-12.72 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 2.6-2.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.0%-64.9% [2][3] - The company continues to focus on national expansion and channel management, enhancing operational capabilities and increasing product exposure. The new product line "Buhua La" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [2][3][4] - The company’s gross profit margin is positively impacted by a decrease in raw material costs, particularly sugar prices, which have dropped by 13.7% year-on-year [4][10] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 6.29, RMB 8.41, and RMB 10.64 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][5][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from RMB 16.14 billion in 2024 to RMB 21.11 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 43.34% and 30.77% respectively [6][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively exploring multi-category development to cultivate new growth points, with a strong focus on the functional beverage market [3][5] - The company’s channel inventory is managed effectively, maintaining a reasonable and low level, which supports sales momentum [3][4] Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33.41 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 24.97 by 2025 [6][10] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 109.203 billion, with a closing price of RMB 210.00 as of October 9, 2023 [7][10]