东鹏饮料：24Q3预告：主业新品持续超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to report Q3 revenue between 4.53 billion to 4.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 42% to 52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 870 million to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 59% to 83% [1] - The main business is accelerating, with Q3 special drink revenue expected to account for 86% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year increase of 38% [1] - New product revenue is anticipated to contribute 14% of total revenue in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 105% [1] Revenue Analysis - The main business and new products are exceeding expectations, with significant growth driven by rapid expansion outside Guangdong province and increased distribution network [1] - The company forecasts total revenue for the first three quarters to be between 12.4 billion to 12.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44% to 47% [1] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q3 is estimated at 19.9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and scale effects [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters is expected to be between 2.6 billion to 2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57% to 65% [1] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.85 billion, 19.90 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.7%, 25.5%, and 23.6% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 3.16 billion, 4.03 billion, and 5.01 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 54.9%, 27.4%, and 24.3% respectively [3]