Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Huaxin Securities·2024-10-10 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10-11 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a significant year-on-year increase of 860.6% to 967.4% [2][5] - The rise in pig prices has remained high, contributing to the expected growth in Q3 performance, which aligns with market expectations [2][5] - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs, with the complete cost dropping to 13.7 yuan per kilogram in August 2024, and is projected to further decrease to 13 yuan per kilogram by the end of 2024 [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The company anticipates a net profit of 90-100 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 738.8% to 818.6% [2][5] - The total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reached 50.144 million, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with Q3 alone accounting for 17.756 million pigs, an 8.4% quarter-on-quarter growth [2][3] Cost Management - The company has achieved a continuous reduction in breeding costs, with a focus on improving production efficiency and learning from global benchmarks in pig farming [2][3] Financial Health - The company issued short-term financing bonds to ensure sufficient cash flow, with a total issuance of 500 million yuan at a rate of 2.5% [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 3-4 billion yuan to boost employee morale and demonstrate confidence in long-term development [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 133.48 billion, 152.01 billion, and 155.19 billion yuan respectively, with EPS estimates of 2.80, 4.70, and 3.62 yuan [5][7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected at 15.5, 9.3, and 12.0 for the respective years [5][7]