东鹏饮料：业绩超预期，动销积极，趋势强化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations with strong sales momentum, indicating a reinforced growth trend [1][4] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 124.0-127.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.50%-47.21% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 26.0-27.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.04%-64.89% [4] Revenue Summary - The company reported a revenue of 45.3-48.5 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 42.32%-52.38% [4] - The sales performance has been positively impacted by various initiatives, including advertising during the Olympics and product promotions related to school training [4][6] - Inventory days have decreased due to improved sales and enhanced inventory management [4] Profitability Summary - The company is experiencing cost improvements and enhanced efficiency, leading to strong profitability [4] - The gross margin is expected to maintain the level seen in Q2 2024, aided by a significant drop in sugar prices [4] - Despite increased expenses related to advertising and equipment, the sales momentum is strong, leading to a projected improvement in the sales expense ratio [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 161.1 billion yuan, 211.1 billion yuan, and 269.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.0%, 31.0%, and 27.5% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 32.4 billion yuan, 43.1 billion yuan, and 55.9 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 58.6%, 33.2%, and 29.7% respectively [4][6] - Corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 34, 25, and 20 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]