Allwinner Technology (300458) 华金证券·2024-10-10 14:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy-B rating for Allwinner Technology (300458 SZ) [1] Core Views - Downstream market demand is recovering, and the company is actively expanding its product lines [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140-156 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to a loss of 20 55 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - Revenue is expected to increase by approximately 50% year-over-year, driven by increased shipments [1] - The company is increasing R&D investment in new chip products and emerging application fields such as smart vehicles and扫地机器人, with R&D expenses growing by about 10% [1] - The company has launched new products like the A527 series and A733 platform to meet higher computing power demands [1] - The company is transitioning to more advanced process technologies, such as 22nm and 12nm, and exploring new application areas [1] - The company has established deep collaborations with leading industry clients, including Xiaomi, Tencent, Alibaba, and others, focusing on AI voice and AI vision applications [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 2 373 million yuan in 2024 to 3 631 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 23 4% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 258 million yuan in 2024 to 601 million yuan in 2026 [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 34 0% in 2024 to 38 0% in 2026 [3] - EPS is projected to grow from 0 41 yuan in 2024 to 0 95 yuan in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to rise from 8 3% in 2024 to 15 9% in 2026 [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on AIoT, smart automotive electronics, smart industry, and smart vision markets, leveraging its diversified product portfolio [1] - The company has successfully transitioned to 22nm and 12nm process technologies and is exploring more advanced IP and design technologies [1] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets such as smart vehicles and扫地机器人, which are expected to drive long-term growth [1] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 89 4x in 2024 to 38 4x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [3] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 7 4x in 2024 to 6 1x in 2026 [3] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 74 6x in 2024 to 39 4x in 2026 [5]