Orinko(688219) 国元证券·2024-10-11 00:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [7][56]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in modified plastics, with significant improvements in profitability. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.349 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.27%, and a net profit of 147 million yuan, up 148.43% year-on-year [2][16]. - The company is expanding into the wet battery separator business, which is expected to provide a new growth avenue, leveraging the rapid growth of the lithium battery separator market [4][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of modified plastics, with a diverse product range including polyolefins, polystyrenes, and engineering plastics. It is one of the largest modified plastics companies in China [12][16]. - The company has seen steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.06% from 2020 to 2023. The net profit significantly improved in 2023, driven by increased investments in new markets such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics [16][18]. 2. Modified Plastics Business - The modified plastics are widely used in various sectors, including home appliances and automotive industries. The company has established a strong customer base, including major brands like Midea and Haier [3][22]. - In the automotive sector, the company reported a 26% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2024, with a remarkable 61% growth in the new energy vehicle segment [3][37]. 3. Wet Battery Separator Business - The company is entering the wet battery separator market, which is experiencing rapid growth due to the increasing demand for lithium batteries. In 2023, China's lithium battery separator shipments reached 17.69 billion square meters, a 32.8% year-on-year increase [4][41]. - The company plans to invest 2 billion yuan to establish a production line for wet battery separators, aiming for an annual output of 1.7 billion square meters [4][51]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain growth, with projected revenues of 6.126 billion yuan, 7.077 billion yuan, and 8.149 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 14.53%, 15.53%, and 15.14% [5][56]. - The net profit is forecasted to reach 230 million yuan, 292 million yuan, and 406 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 56.40%, 27.01%, and 39.05% [5][56].