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东鹏饮料:业绩表现亮眼,增长超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.6-2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.0%-64.9% [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 4.53-4.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.3%-52.4%. The strong performance of Dongpeng Special Drink is expected to continue, supported by new product launches [2]. - Cost reductions are expected to enhance profitability, with net profit margins projected at 19.9% and 19.4% for attributable and non-attributable net profits, respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.7 and 3.3 percentage points [2]. - The company's brand strength is on the rise, with accelerated national expansion. The focus on sales-driven operations is expected to solidify the market position of Dongpeng Special Drink [2]. - Profit forecasts indicate net profits of 3.22 billion, 4.39 billion, and 5.55 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 57.8%, 36.3%, and 26.5% [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 15.736 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 39.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.219 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 57.8% [3]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to reach 4.441 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant increase in profitability metrics such as ROE projected at 40.4% [3]. - The report highlights a stable financial position with a projected current ratio of 1.18 and a quick ratio of 1.04 for 2024, indicating good liquidity [9].