SJM HOLDINGS(00880) 华泰证券·2024-10-11 02:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 澳博控股 (880 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 4.70, corresponding to a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 10x [2][7]. Core Insights - The performance of 上葡京 has shown improvement, with EBITDA turning positive since Q4 2023, and market share increasing from 1.3% in H1 2023 to 2.1% in H1 2024. The adjusted property EBITDA margin is also gradually increasing [2][4]. - The company has strategically developed popular dining and entertainment experiences, collaborating with Hong Kong TVB to create programs targeting Greater Bay Area travelers, which has resulted in significant promotional effects [3][4]. - The report indicates that the valuation is now above pre-pandemic levels, with the average EV/EBITDA from 2016-2019 being 8.9x, while the industry average was 13-14x during that period [4]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2024, the projected revenue is HKD 28,883 million, with a year-on-year growth of 33.58% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 520.03 million in 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of HKD 2,010 million in 2023 [6][12]. - The EBITDA is projected to reach HKD 3,755 million in 2024, with a further increase to HKD 4,764 million in 2025 [12]. Market Trends - During the recent National Day holiday, Macau's gaming industry saw a resurgence, with visitor numbers reaching 99 million, recovering to 119% of 2019 levels, and daily gaming revenue approaching pre-pandemic figures [5]. - The report highlights that the strategy of inviting high-profile performers has shifted, aiming to attract high-spending customers, which is expected to positively impact gaming revenue [5].