SMIC-中芯国际：消费复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue growth and profitability improvements in the coming years [4] Core Views - 24Q2 revenue and gross margin exceeded guidance, with revenue reaching $1.9 billion, up 9% QoQ, and gross margin improving to 13.9%, up 0.2 percentage points QoQ [2] - Demand recovery in mid-to-low-end consumer electronics and geopolitical factors driving new customer opportunities, with China accounting for 80% of regional revenue [2] - 8-inch wafer utilization rebounded, while 12-inch capacity remained near full utilization, with overall capacity utilization reaching 85%, up 4 percentage points QoQ [2] - 24Q3 revenue is expected to grow 13%-15% QoQ, with gross margin projected at 18%-20%, driven by strong 12-inch demand and optimized product mix [2] - Full-year 2024 revenue is expected to exceed industry peers, with H2 revenue surpassing H1, supported by capacity expansion and market demand [2] Financial Performance and Projections - 2024/2025/2026 revenue is forecasted at 55.7/62.8/71.4 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.6/5.8/6.8 billion yuan [4] - 2024-2026 PE ratios are projected at 130/103/88x, with PB ratios at 3.76/3.62/3.48x [4] - 2024 gross margin is expected to be 18.9%, improving to 20.8% by 2026, with net margin stabilizing around 9.5% [6] Capacity Expansion and Capital Expenditure - The company plans to add approximately 60,000 12-inch wafer capacity per month by the end of 2024, with full-year 2024 capital expenditure maintained at$ 7.5 billion [3] - 12-inch capacity expansion is a key focus, with new capacity quickly ramping up production and contributing to revenue growth [2] Industry Outlook - The global semiconductor industry is expected to maintain cyclical and growth characteristics, with long-term growth driven by increasing demand for smart devices [3] - Regionalization trends in the semiconductor industry are accelerating, with "local for local, China for China" strategies becoming more prominent [3] - 2024-2025 remains a peak year for regional capacity expansion, with the company well-positioned to benefit from these trends [3]