SAILUN GROUP(601058) 国泰君安·2024-10-11 05:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with production and sales remaining at a high level. New expansion projects in various locations, including Dongjiakou, Cambodia, Mexico, and Indonesia, are progressing smoothly, which is expected to support continued growth in the company's performance [4][10]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 3.21 billion to 3.28 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.52% to 61.98% [10]. - The report anticipates the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 1.30, 1.45, and 1.59 yuan, respectively, and assigns a target price of 19.28 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14.83 for 2024 [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue: - 2022A: 21,902 million yuan - 2023A: 25,978 million yuan - 2024E: 30,725 million yuan (growth of 18.3% from 2023A) - 2025E: 34,497 million yuan (growth of 12.3% from 2024E) - 2026E: 37,171 million yuan (growth of 7.8% from 2025E) [5][12] - Net Profit (attributable to shareholders): - 2022A: 1,332 million yuan - 2023A: 3,091 million yuan - 2024E: 4,277 million yuan (growth of 38.4% from 2023A) - 2025E: 4,760 million yuan (growth of 11.3% from 2024E) - 2026E: 5,218 million yuan (growth of 9.6% from 2025E) [5][12] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.41 yuan - 2023A: 0.94 yuan - 2024E: 1.30 yuan - 2025E: 1.45 yuan - 2026E: 1.59 yuan [5][12] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: 10.9% - 2023A: 20.8% - 2024E: 20.2% - 2025E: 19.0% - 2026E: 17.8% [5][12] Market Performance - The company's stock price has ranged between 10.67 and 17.22 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 50,012 million yuan [7]. - The current stock price is 15.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.18 based on the latest diluted share capital [6][12]. Industry Outlook - The tire industry continues to experience high demand, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in rubber tire exports from China in August, amounting to approximately 150.46 billion yuan [10]. - The company is actively managing cost pressures through price adjustments, with a recent price increase of 2%-4% on TBR products effective from October 15 [10]. - Ongoing capacity expansion projects are expected to enhance the company's growth potential, with significant investments in new production facilities in Mexico, Cambodia, and Indonesia [10].